Invitation to the presentation of SLP’s results for January – March 2026

SLP will publish its interim report for Jan–Mar 2026 on 16 April at 08:00 CEST, with a recorded audiocast presentation at 10:00 CEST. CEO Filip Persson and Board member & acting CFO Tommy Åstrand will present; English presentation materials and the audiocast will be available on the company's IR site and media-server link, and questions can be submitted to [e-mail].

Analysis

Swedish logistics landlords sit at the intersection of two opposing forces: structurally higher demand for last‑mile space (supporting rents and low vacancy in urban micro‑hubs) versus an expanding development pipeline of big‑box product on the outskirts that can compress rents in 12–24 months. For a company with material floating or short‑dated debt, a 100bp move in Swedish swap rates translates directly to mid‑single‑digit percentage hits to FFO if leverage is >40% — so earnings beats driven by occupancy can be offset quickly by financing cost movements.

Indexation mechanics matter more than headline occupancy. If leases have CPI or CPI+ floors, a 2–3% annual CPI tailwind lifts cash NOI on a lag of one quarter per lease re‑set; conversely, large portions of tenant cost stress (transport/shipping rates, labour) can produce concessioning or shorter lease renewals, revealing hidden vacancy risk within 6–9 months. ESG retrofit and truck‑yard paving capex are a second hidden drain: expect a mid-single‑digit capex increase per sqm over three years to hit FCF if the asset base is older.

Competitive dynamics: well‑capitalised pan‑European platforms (liquid names like SEGRO/Prologis) will outbid local owners for prime urban infill, pushing smaller domestic owners toward secondary, lower‑yield assets unless they pivot to services (contract logistics, lease‑to‑operators). That bifurcation creates a durable valuation gap: primes re‑rate tighter on scarcity, secondaries face higher vacancy and capex risk — a pattern that typically plays out over 6–18 months as new supply is delivered and financing cycles turn.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Pair trade (6–12 months): Long SEGRO (SGRO.L) or Prologis (PLD) 5–7% portfolio exposure; Short Swedish residential landlord Heimstaden B (HEIM-B.ST) 3–4% exposure. Rationale: logistics scarcity + CPI linkage vs residential rent control and operational cost pressure. Target: 15–25% relative return; stop if spread narrows by 100bps in cap‑rate differential or absolute losses exceed 8%.
• Event tactical (0–3 months): If interim numbers show sustained occupancy but weak earnings per share due to financing, buy a 6–12 month payer swaption (cap on floating cost) sized to cover ~50% of expected refinance needs. Cost ~50–150bps of notional buys insurance against a 75–150bp rate move that would wipe 5–10% off NAV.
• Opportunistic options (9–12 months): Buy PLD Jan next‑year 1.5x/2.5x call spread sized to 2–3% portfolio for convex exposure to rents re‑rating without funding long delta. Reward: asymmetric upside if European logistics cap‑rates compress further; risk limited to premium paid (~100–200bps of notional).
• Defensive/liquidity (days–months): Reduce unhedged exposure to smaller Nordic logistics names with >40% LTV and >50% floating debt—target cash buffer equal to 6 months interest expense; use this buffer to add on rate pullbacks >75bps within 90 days.