Notice to attend the Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders of 2026

Arise AB has convened an Extraordinary General Meeting for 29 January 2026 after Aneo Bidco 1 AB announced its public offer was accepted to the extent it will hold more than 90% of shares and votes. The EGM will address board composition and proposed resolutions from Aneo BidCo, including a proposal to pay additional remuneration to four former board members (SEK 492,500 to Joachim Gahm; SEK 187,500 to Mikael Schoultz; SEK 208,500 to P‑G Persson; SEK 162,500 to Mia Bodin). As of the notice the company has 41,171,123 registered shares (386,096 own ordinary shares), and the meeting could formalize governance changes following the takeover bid.

Analysis

Market structure: Aneo BidCo’s >90% acceptance effectively consolidates control of Arise (ARISE.ST) and likely removes ~90% of public float, benefiting Aneo (control, NAV extraction) and legacy board members receiving extra pay; public minority holders and liquidity providers are losers due to squeeze‑out risk and wider spreads. Reduced listed supply of Swedish renewables increases M&A fungibility: expect more competition for remaining public development platforms (EOLU.ST, OX2.ST), upward pressure on acquisition multiples and short‑term volatility in ARISE.ST. Cross‑asset: corporate bond spreads for Arise could widen if the buyer leverages the deal (monitor +100–300bps moves); SEK flows and commodity effects are secondary.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include regulatory intervention (Swedish/EEA energy or foreign‑ownership review), financing collapse for Aneo, or minority litigation — each could move value ±20–40% and occur within 0–6 months. Immediate (days): elevated implied vol and trading illiquidity ahead of EGM (Jan 29, 2026); short term (weeks/months): delisting/squeeze‑out mechanics and potential re‑pricing; long term (6–24 months): asset carve‑ups, re‑leverage, or accelerated project sales. Hidden dependencies: contingent earnouts, seller financing, and tax treatment of invoiced board fees that may signal governance risk.

Trade implications: Direct: for holders of ARISE.ST, if the cash offer implies >=15% premium to the 30‑day VWAP (as of Dec 31, 2025) tender into the offer; otherwise size reduction to 0–25% of current holding pending EGM result (action within 14 days). Relative value: establish 2–3% portfolio longs in EOLU.ST and OX2.ST (6–12 month horizon) anticipating consolidation re‑rating +20–30%. Options: buy 3‑month 5% OTM puts on ARISE.ST sized to hedge 50% of position ahead of EGM; consider selling options (short straddle/iron‑condor) 2–4 weeks after any confirmed squeeze‑out to capture vol collapse.

Contrarian angles: The market may underweight NAV upside from accelerated monetisation (project sales) under private ownership — buyers often unlock value via asset sales or tax optimisation, implying a 10–25% NAV uplift over 12–18 months in successful carve‑ups. Conversely, consensus may overstate regulatory risk; if no intervention by regulators within 60 days post‑EGM, downside tail risk falls materially and remaining public developers become preferred beneficiaries. Watch EGM vote details (items 6–7) and any announced financing terms within 30 days as binary catalysts.

Key Decisions for Investors

• If long ARISE.ST, tender shares into the cash offer if the offer price is >=15% above the 30‑day VWAP as of Dec 31, 2025; otherwise reduce position to no more than 25% of current exposure by Jan 23, 2026 (vote/registration cutoff).
• Establish 2–3% portfolio longs in EOLU.ST (Eolus) and OX2.ST for 6–12 months to capture consolidation rerating; target +20–30% upside, stop‑loss at -12%.
• Buy 3‑month ARISE.ST puts 5% OTM sized to hedge 50% of your ARISE exposure immediately and roll/close position within 2 weeks after the EGM (Jan 29, 2026) or upon squeeze‑out confirmation.
• If Arise corporate bond spreads widen >150bps versus Sweden sovereign curve within 3 months, consider buying 2‑year protection (or underweight similar SMID‑cap renewable credits) anticipating higher leverage under private ownership.
• Monitor regulatory filings and the EGM outcomes for items 6–7 within 30 days; if no regulatory action and Aneo publishes aggressive deleveraging/asset‑sale plans, add incremental 1–2% exposure to public renewable developers over the following 60 days.