Moog (MOG.A) Earnings Expected to Grow: Should You Buy?

Moog (MOG.A) is expected to report its June 2025 quarterly results on July 25, with consensus estimates projecting $2.10 EPS (+10% YoY) and $912.48 million revenue (+0.9% YoY). Despite a recent 1.03% downward revision in consensus EPS, Moog's positive Zacks Earnings ESP of +1.27% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) indicate a high probability of an earnings beat. This outlook is further supported by the company's consistent history of surpassing consensus EPS estimates for the past four quarters, positioning it as a compelling candidate for an upside surprise.

Analysis

Moog (MOG.A) is positioned for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming quarterly report on July 25, based on a convergence of positive technical indicators despite mixed analyst sentiment. The consensus forecast calls for a 10% year-over-year increase in EPS to $2.10, although revenue growth is projected to be marginal at 0.9% to $912.48 million. While the consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 1.03% over the past 30 days, more recent analyst revisions, captured by the Zacks Most Accurate Estimate, are more bullish. This divergence results in a positive Earnings ESP of +1.27%, which, when combined with a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy), creates a high-probability setup for a positive surprise, a scenario that has historically occurred nearly 70% of the time for stocks with this profile. This outlook is further substantiated by Moog's consistent performance, having surpassed consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters. The company's strength is underscored when contrasted with peer Hexcel (HXL), which faces projections of a 23.3% YoY earnings decline and carries a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell), indicating significant relative outperformance by Moog within the Aerospace & Defense Equipment sector.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the strong statistical likelihood of an earnings beat based on the +1.27% Earnings ESP and #2 Buy Rank, investors could consider establishing or adding to a long position in MOG.A ahead of the July 25th report.
• Investors must look beyond the headline earnings number and closely monitor management's forward-looking guidance on the earnings call, as the projected slow revenue growth of 0.9% could be a point of concern that may temper a positive stock reaction.
• The starkly negative outlook for peer Hexcel (HXL) versus the positive indicators for Moog suggests a potential pair trade opportunity, going long MOG.A and short HXL, to capitalize on their diverging fundamentals within the same industry.