Les Hôtels Baverez : Information trimestrielle 2e Trimestre 2026

Les Hotels Baverez a publié un chiffre d’affaires cumulé de 15,1 M€ au 30 juin 2026, en hausse de +3,10% vs 14,7 M€ à la même date de 2025, tiré par Regina (+3,05% à 10,772 M€) et Majestic Hôtel & Spa (+5,27% à 4,305 M€). Le prix moyen (hors taxes) progresse de ~4% sur le semestre (612,57 € à 636,96 €) et le RevPar s’améliore à 462,96 € (+2,1%). La société confirme des comptes 2025 avec bénéfice de 2,2 M€ et le versement d’un dividende de 0,30 € par action, tout en indiquant que le chantier de rénovation de l’hôtel Raphael accuse un retard et que l’activité restera principalement portée par Regina et Majestic au S2 2026.

Analysis

The key market mechanism here is not headline growth; it is the widening gap between the two operating hotels and the cash sink from a delayed refurbishment. That makes the equity more of a project-finance story than a pure hospitality comp: near-term earnings quality depends on whether rate gains can offset the loss of room inventory and higher construction spend.

Winners are the surviving Paris luxury assets and, second-order, any contractor/interior supplier that benefits from a prolonged fit-out; losers are shareholders if the reopening slips again, because each extra quarter delays the re-rating that would normally come with normalized occupancy and a fuller asset base. The fact that pricing is still rising while occupancy eases suggests the market is absorbing premium room rates, which is constructive for the broader Paris high-end lodging set, but also means incremental upside from further ADR gains is probably limited.

The main catalyst path is not the next quarter’s sales print; it is any credible update on the reopening date and capex envelope over the next 1-3 months. If management is forced to push the timetable again, the thesis shifts from temporary disruption to execution risk, and the stock should trade with a higher discount rate for 6-18 months. Geopolitical noise is a real tail risk, but the more immediate falsifier is a weaker booking curve or evidence that renovation overruns are eroding the cash cushion faster than operating profits rebuild it.

The contrarian read is that investors may be too focused on top-line resilience and underweight the balance-sheet implications of a long closure. The dividend and cash position look comfortable today, but with debt up and a key asset offline, capital returns are only sustainable if the restart arrives on time and without a large final capex surprise.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Avoid initiating a new position in ALLHB until management provides a firmer Raphael reopening window and capex update; with the asset still offline, the stock is mostly a timing instrument, not a clean operating story.
• If already long ALLHB, keep size small and use any rally into strength to trim unless the company confirms the renovation is back on schedule; thesis is invalidated by another delay or any evidence of cost creep.
• For a more liquid expression of resilient Paris premium demand, consider a modest long AC.PA on pullbacks over the next 1-3 months; the cleaner catalyst is sustained ADR, not occupancy, and the risk/reward is better than in the microcap.
• Set a watch item on ALLHB for a second schedule slip: that would likely compress the multiple and justify moving from neutral to underweight, as the market would start capitalizing a prolonged cash drag rather than a temporary closure.