Soft Landing Myth: How This Week's Data Exposed The Hidden Recession

U.S. data points to a soft landing: ISM Services PMI is 54.0 and Prices Paid fell to 67.7, consistent with moderating inflation. However, labor is cooling with NFP at 57,000 amid declining participation, though services remain resilient. Net: modestly supportive for a defensive/quality portfolio tilt rather than a clear risk-on catalyst.

Analysis

U.S. data points to a soft landing: ISM Services PMI is 54.0 and Prices Paid fell to 67.7, consistent with moderating inflation. However, labor is cooling with NFP at 57,000 amid declining participation, though services remain resilient. Net: modestly supportive for a defensive/quality portfolio tilt rather than a clear risk-on catalyst.