What do gas turbine orders tell us about future gas demand?

Barclays reports a surge in gas turbine orders, indicating a potential increase of over 10 Bcfd in U.S. power demand for natural gas by 2030, with upside to nearly 14 Bcfd. Global gas turbine orders grew 34% year-over-year in 2024 to 57 GW and are projected to increase another 40% in 2025 to 80 GW, with North America's share of orders expanding rapidly to a potential 40-50% by 2030. GE Vernova, holding a significant market share, has 50 GW of turbines under contract or reserved, with expectations for this backlog to grow, further supporting a bullish outlook for long-term gas demand.

Analysis

A Barclays research note presents a compelling case for a significant, multi-year increase in U.S. natural gas demand for power generation, utilizing gas turbine order growth as a primary leading indicator. Based on McCoy data, global orders surged 34% year-over-year in 2024 to a decade-high 57 GW and are forecast to accelerate by another 40% in 2025 to 80 GW. This trend underpins a risked base case estimate of over 10 Bcfd in U.S. power demand growth by 2030. Critically, North America's share of this expanding order book is projected to grow from 14% in 2023 to a dominant 40-50% between 2025 and 2030, signaling a structural shift in regional energy infrastructure investment. GE Vernova (GEV), holding roughly a quarter of the global market, exemplifies this momentum with 50 GW of turbines under contract or reserved as of Q1 2025, a backlog Barclays expects to reach 60 GW by year-end with 60% of that growth tied to the U.S. market. The bank quantifies this impact by estimating that 50 GW of new turbine capacity translates to approximately 5 Bcfd of annual gas demand, a material increase relative to the estimated 36 Bcfd of U.S. gas-for-power demand in 2025.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given that gas turbine orders serve as a leading indicator, investors should assess long-term positions in natural gas futures or producers, as the projected 10+ Bcfd demand increase by 2030 suggests a structural uplift in consumption.
• GE Vernova's strengthening order book, with a backlog expected to hit 60 GW and a growing share of the expanding U.S. market, warrants a bullish view on the stock for investors seeking exposure to the power generation infrastructure buildout.
• It is prudent to monitor quarterly order and delivery data from major turbine suppliers, as confirmation of the 40% growth forecast for 2025 will be a key catalyst and validation point for this investment thesis.