The Best Way to Invest in OpenAI and ChatGPT Before Its IPO

Microsoft’s stake in OpenAI is estimated at about 27%, implying roughly $230 billion of value based on OpenAI’s $852 billion valuation after raising $122 billion. The article argues Microsoft investors get exposure to OpenAI’s growth potential at a nearly decade-low operating P/E, making the stock look attractive on a relative basis. The piece is largely commentary, but it highlights a possible OpenAI IPO and Microsoft’s significant embedded AI value.

Analysis

The market is likely underappreciating the optionality embedded in MSFT’s OpenAI stake because the equity story still screens as a classic megacap software compounder, not a venture-like AI platform owner. That matters: if OpenAI remains private longer, the stake functions as deep out-of-the-money call exposure with no mark-to-market catalyst, but if it lists, MSFT gets an immediate re-rating lever without paying incremental capital. The second-order effect is that Microsoft’s AI “ecosystem tax” may become more visible to the market, pulling enterprise spend and developer attention further toward Azure even if OpenAI’s standalone economics remain poor.

The bigger winner may be the AI infrastructure stack rather than the model layer. Any path that forces OpenAI to raise more capital publicly increases demand for compute, networking, power, and memory, which is structurally supportive for NVDA and selectively positive for adjacent suppliers. Intel’s relevance is more indirect: if capital intensity pushes hyperscalers to diversify supply chains and optimize inference cost, there is room for niche share gains, but only if execution improves fast enough to matter within the next 4-6 quarters.

The consensus risk is that investors are treating the OpenAI stake as essentially “free money,” when the real issue is timing and monetization. If OpenAI’s IPO is delayed 12-24 months, the equity market may continue to value MSFT on core earnings alone, which limits near-term uplift from the stake. The other tail risk is regulatory or contractual friction around ownership and economics, which could cap the realizable value even in a public listing scenario. In that case, the trade is less about a direct OpenAI mark-up and more about MSFT’s durable underwriting of the AI platform economy.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Stay long MSFT into the next 6-12 months, but treat it as a quality AI proxy rather than a pure OpenAI optionality play; expect the upside to come from multiple support plus gradual re-rating, not a near-term windfall.
• Add to NVDA on any post-capex digestion pullback over the next 1-3 months; if OpenAI ultimately needs another public financing round or IPO prep, compute demand should remain the highest-beta beneficiary.
• Use a long MSFT / short a basket of slower-moving large-cap software names as a relative-value expression over 3-6 months; the market is still likely to reward the clearest AI monetization pipeline.
• Do not chase INTC on this headline alone; if you want exposure, size it as a speculative 6-12 month optionality trade only, with tight risk controls given execution uncertainty.
• For more aggressive accounts, consider MSFT Jan-2027 call spreads to express upside from a potential OpenAI liquidity event while limiting premium burn if the IPO window slips.