If I Had $10,000 to Invest Today, Here's the Trillion-Dollar Stock I'd Buy Instead of SpaceX

The article argues Nvidia (NVDA) offers better value than SpaceX after SpaceX’s IPO-driven surge to $225.64 before dropping back to about $150, alongside an extreme valuation (P/S ~103 vs Nasdaq-100 avg). For Nvidia, it highlights full production/ramp of the “Vera Rubin” architecture, claiming 75% fewer GPUs needed for training and up to 90% lower inference token costs, supporting AI adoption. Despite risks from AI infrastructure cost pressures and customers shifting to cheaper models (e.g., 60% of businesses opting for less-compute AI per UBS), Nvidia is described as undervalued on P/E (30.2 vs 10-year avg 61.6) with a forward P/E of 15.4 based on $12.76 fiscal 2028 EPS consensus and 85%+ YoY growth highlighted in the latest quarter.

Analysis

The near-term market mistake is to read every AI budget pause as a demand cliff. If next-gen GPUs materially reduce $/token, customers can slow raw capex while still expanding inference usage, which supports the platform leader with the fastest cadence and the deepest software lock-in. That makes the current digestion phase more likely to last 1-2 quarters than to signal a secular air pocket, unless enterprises permanently downshift to smaller models and large-scale training budgets stop growing.

The newly public space/AI hybrid is vulnerable to a classic duration squeeze: thin fundamental visibility, very high expectations, and a market that is no longer paying for narrative alone. In the next 30-60 days, liquidity and positioning matter more than business quality; if the stock loses momentum, fundamental buyers may be absent because there is no earnings proof to anchor the multiple. The second-order effect is capital rotation toward cash-generative AI infrastructure rather than speculative adjacent stories.

Consensus is missing the asymmetry that cheaper AI can be deflationary for revenue per workload but inflationary for total usage. That favors the supplier that can force an upgrade cycle, not the app-layer names that have to defend pricing to customers. The key falsifier is a sequence of delayed orders and weaker guide language over the next two earnings cycles; if that happens, the multiple can compress even with positive growth.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Go long NVDA on post-news pullbacks over the next 1-3 weeks; target a 15-20% move over 3 months if the market accepts the current budget pause as temporary. Falsify if data-center growth decelerates for two consecutive quarters or next-gen adoption slips materially.
• Short SPCX tactically only on strength, and keep size small because liquidity/borrow risk can dominate fundamentals. Use a tight stop if secondary supply is absorbed and the stock reclaims its prior range on expanding volume.
• Pair trade: long NVDA / short MSFT for 1-3 months to express the view that hardware refresh beats AI monetization and price-pass-through risk. Cover if MSFT shows no churn from pricing actions and NVDA guidance implies a second-half order re-acceleration.
• Set an alert on enterprise AI spend commentary from MSFT and UBER over the next quarter; a second round of budget cuts would argue for reducing NVDA exposure rather than adding to it.