History Says Snowflake Stock Could Fly Even Higher

Snowflake (SNOW) shares reached a new annual high of $209.29 following news of a partnership with the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics and a prior 13.4% post-earnings surge, despite remaining below its 2020 peak. A historically bullish signal is flashing, as low implied volatility coincides with the stock trading near its 52-week high; similar setups have resulted in average gains of 3.9% one month later. Elevated put volume suggests potential for a short squeeze to further boost the stock.

Analysis

Snowflake (SNOW) shares recently achieved a new annual high of $209.29, supported by an uplift in its composite rating to 96, news of a partnership with the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics, and a 13.4% post-earnings surge on May 22. Despite this momentum contributing to a 33% year-to-date gain, the stock remains substantially below its December 2020 record peak of $390. A significant technical indicator has emerged: SNOW exhibits low implied volatility, with its Schaeffer’s Volatility Index (SVI) at 38% (16th percentile of its annual range), while trading within 2% of its 52-week high. According to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, two similar signals in the past three years were followed by the stock being higher one month later on both occasions, with an average gain of 3.9%. Concurrently, options market data from the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX indicates a 50-day put/call volume ratio in the 86th percentile of annual readings, signifying unusually high put volume. This elevated bearish sentiment, if it begins to unwind, could serve as a tailwind for the share price.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should consider the historically bullish technical signal for Snowflake, where low implied volatility near a 52-week high has previously led to short-term gains, averaging 3.9% one month later in similar past instances.
• Evaluate the current elevated put/call volume ratio as a potential contrarian positive, as an unwinding of this bearish options positioning could provide upward momentum for the stock.
• Monitor Snowflake's implied volatility and options sentiment indicators closely, as shifts could confirm or challenge the current bullish outlook, especially given the stock is up 33% year-to-date but still well below its all-time high.