4 Lessons for Future OpenAI and Anthropic Investors, Following SpaceX's Historic IPO

SpaceX’s June 12 IPO—priced at $135, peaking at $225.64, then trading near ~$160—highlights the risk of “hot” AI IPOs. The article argues OpenAI (~$852B valuation, potential ~$1T IPO at ~50x annualized $20B run-rate) and Anthropic (~$965B valuation, potential ~$1T IPO at ~111x ~$9B run-rate) could face frothy price-to-sales multiples, while profitability trajectories diverge (Anthropic targeting its first adjusted operating profit this year vs OpenAI’s $38.5B net loss on $13.1B revenue in calendar 2025). It also notes low float plans (SpaceX ~4% vs OpenAI/Anthropic targeting ~5%-10%) could drive volatile debuts and retail-focused allocation could increase hype risk.

Analysis

These deals are best viewed as scarcity events, not durable public-equity ownership. A tiny float plus retail-heavy distribution can lift the first tape, but it also guarantees a supply overhang once employees, early holders, and secondary sellers are allowed out; that second wave is usually the real price discovery. For SPCX, the risk/reward looks asymmetric to the downside over 1-3 months if revenue growth merely normalizes, because the market is already paying for perfection while dilution remains structurally embedded.

The bigger winner is not the model labs themselves but the picks-and-shovels complex that monetizes every incremental dollar of AI capex, regardless of which vendor wins the arms race. That argues for semis and infrastructure names like NVDA over narrative-driven IPO exposure, especially if the IPOs trade more like venture marks than operating companies. A public read-through that rewards Anthropic’s improving operating leverage would likely punish OpenAI-relative expectations and shift capital toward enterprise software with visible gross-margin expansion.

Contrarian take: the consensus is confusing trading scarcity with fundamental scarcity. Low float can create a squeeze, but it does not solve the core issue of future dilution, SBC, and eventual lockup supply; in fact, it can worsen the subsequent air pocket. The key falsifier is a real, repeated improvement in operating leverage and disclosure quality post-listing; absent that, these names are more likely to de-rate on the first earnings/secondary print than to sustain IPO-day multiples.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Fade SPCX strength: initiate a short or buy 60-90 day put spreads on any post-IPO rally that leaves the stock above ~100x sales; target a 20-30% drawdown as lockup/dilution supply hits. Stop if the company prints accelerating growth plus margin expansion in its first two disclosures.
• Pair trade: long NVDA (or SMH) vs short IPO-basket sentiment exposure via ARKK or IPO ETF for a 3-6 month horizon. Thesis is that actual AI infrastructure monetization outperforms story-driven capital formation once the initial scarcity bid fades.
• Do not chase OpenAI/Anthropic on day one; wait for the first post-listing filing and lockup calendar before underwriting the names. Watch for SBC as a % of revenue and any step-up in share issuance—if either worsens, the post-IPO multiple is likely to compress sharply.
• Set an alert for any IPO pricing below the expected froth range (materially lower P/S or larger float than anticipated): that would invalidate the squeeze thesis and shift the trade from fade-the-pop to stand aside.