It Took SpaceX Just 1 Day to Reach a Milestone Tesla Has Never Achieved. Which Elon Musk-Led Stock Is the Better Buy in June?

SpaceX’s IPO reportedly valued the company at $2.11 trillion, with $75 billion raised at $135 per share, while Tesla’s market cap is about $1.67 trillion and its forward P/E sits at 162.4x on 2026 EPS of $2.06. The article argues both companies are priced for growth rather than current profitability, highlights Tesla’s slower EV demand and heavy capex, and suggests a potential merger between SpaceX and Tesla as early as next year. The piece is largely opinionated commentary, but the scale of the valuation figures and merger speculation could influence sentiment around both names.

Analysis

The real market signal here is not “two moonshot stories are big”; it’s that both names are increasingly trading as duration assets whose value depends on optionality rather than current cash generation. That makes them highly sensitive to discount rates, liquidity, and narrative reflexivity, which means post-IPO/earnings momentum can persist longer than fundamentals justify—until float expands or capital intensity forces a reset.

For TSLA, the key second-order issue is not competition alone but whether the company can finance multiple simultaneously expensive platforms without compressing equity value through dilution or balance-sheet strain. If autonomy and robotics timelines slip by even 12-18 months, the market will likely re-rate the stock from “AI platform” back toward an industrial manufacturer multiple, and that transition could be abrupt because the current valuation embeds several years of flawless execution.

For SpaceX, the near-term risk is the classic private-market-to-public-market mismatch: constrained supply can mechanically inflate price before a broader shareholder base and deeper float expose the underlying economics. The likely beneficiaries of any cooling in the Musk complex are the adjacent AI and infrastructure suppliers that gain operating leverage from the capex cycle without taking single-name headline risk.

The contrarian read is that the market may be overestimating the probability of a clean conglomerate-style merger and underestimating the governance and financing friction of combining a cash-generative public company with a still-capital-hungry platform stack. A merger headline could lift both stocks initially, but the more durable trade would be in picks-and-shovels beneficiaries of autonomy, satellite connectivity, and AI infrastructure rather than the combined entity itself.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Reduce outright long TSLA exposure over the next 1-3 months; use strength to trim into any merger-speculation rally. Risk/reward is poor above current valuation unless autonomy monetization becomes visible in quarterly numbers.
• Initiate a relative-value pair: long NVDA/MSFT basket vs short TSLA, 3-6 month horizon. Thesis: AI infrastructure monetizes today, while TSLA’s optionality remains execution-dependent; better downside protection if rates stay elevated.
• Buy TSLA downside via 6-12 month put spreads rather than short stock. This gives exposure to a multiple reset if robotaxi/Optimus timelines slip, while capping premium burn if narrative momentum continues.
• Watch for a post-float expansion reset in SpaceX and consider fading any parabolic move after insider supply increases. Best risk/reward is to wait for supply normalization rather than chase the first scarcity-driven leg.
• Prefer suppliers and platform beneficiaries tied to autonomy/AI capex over the headline names; use weakness in GOOGL, MSFT, and NVDA only to add on pullbacks, as they capture second-order spend regardless of whether the Musk thesis works.