Comcast earnings highlight NBCUniversal strength ahead of planned split

Comcast Q2 revenue fell 1.2% to $29.94B, but NBCUniversal/content and experiences drove a nearly 23% YoY revenue gain to $10.73B, with Peacock reaching profitability for the first time. The connectivity business remained pressured: connectivity and platforms revenue was down 3% to $19.8B, with 167,000 residential broadband customers lost and 280,000 cable TV subscribers lost during the quarter. Adjusted EPS rose to $1.04, beating the $0.97 consensus, as shares were up ~1.5% premarket ahead of the planned split into two public companies.

Analysis

The near-term read-through is not the earnings beat itself but the split mechanics: investors can now underwrite a cleaner media asset against a shrinking cable cash-flow engine. That should help CMCSA’s multiple in the next 1-3 months, but only if the separation memo shows the broadband entity is not overlevered; otherwise the market may simply reprice the decline-rate business lower and offset the media uplift.

The real second-order winner is TMUS, and to a lesser extent VZ, because every incremental broadband loss makes fixed wireless look more credible as a low-friction substitute, especially in secondary markets where promotional pricing matters more than peak speeds. On the other side, CHTR remains the cleanest public proxy for the same pressure CMCSA is feeling, but without NBCU/Peacock to cushion the blow.

Peacock profitability is the biggest trapdoor in the story. Sports can manufacture profitable quarters, but the durable question is whether the service can stay EBITDA-positive once event cadence normalizes and content costs reset; if not, the market will likely fade the media premium within 6-12 months. Conversely, if management uses the split to prioritize cash returns and leverage the mobile base to slow churn, CMCSA could rerate as a slow-growth cash compounder rather than a melting ice cube.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long CMCSA vs short CHTR over the next 1-3 months: CMCSA has incremental media optionality and mobile diversification, while CHTR remains a purer expression of broadband erosion; target a 10-15% relative outperformance if the split narrative gains traction.
• Buy TMUS on weakness as a structural beneficiary of cable substitution; this is a 6-18 month trade on fixed wireless share gains, with thesis invalidation if broadband losses at CMCSA/CHTR stabilize for two consecutive quarters.
• Avoid chasing CMCSA outright into the pre-split pop; if the separation filing reveals materially higher debt transfer to the broadband company, expect a 5-10% de-rating in the legacy cable exposure and consider fading strength.
• For event-driven accounts, use a CMCSA Jan-2026 call spread rather than stock: the upside is a sum-of-parts re-rating around the spin, while downside is capped by the fact that Peacock profitability may prove sports-dependent and non-recurring.