This Ceasefire Rally Could Collapse Tomorrow: Here's What I'm Buying Anyway

A fragile two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in place, but a day later transits through the Strait of Hormuz remain in the mid single digits. Persistently low transit volumes signal ongoing disruption to seaborne energy flows and keep upside risk to oil prices and shipping premiums. The ceasefire reduces immediate escalation risk but is unlikely to fully normalize trade or logistics while it remains fragile.

Analysis

A fragile two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in place, but a day later transits through the Strait of Hormuz remain in the mid single digits. Persistently low transit volumes signal ongoing disruption to seaborne energy flows and keep upside risk to oil prices and shipping premiums. The ceasefire reduces immediate escalation risk but is unlikely to fully normalize trade or logistics while it remains fragile.