Corn Posting Wednesday Weakness, as Ethanol Production Remains Robust

U.S. corn futures gave back 3–4 cents across the front months on Wednesday, with the CmdtyView national average cash corn down 3.5¢ to $3.99 and Dec futures near $4.37, as the market retraced some of Tuesday’s gains. EIA data for the week to Dec. 5 showed ethanol production eased to 1.105 million bpd (down 21,000 bpd), ethanol stocks slipped slightly to 22.51 million barrels and refiner inputs and exports declined, pointing to softer domestic demand. CFTC data (week of Nov. 4) show speculators trimmed 17,990 contracts from their net short to 71,516, while recent tenders — South Korean buyers for 136,000 MT and Taiwan for 65,000 MT — provide export support. Taken together, the pullback appears driven by demand softness and profit-taking but is likely to be cushioned by positioning changes and fresh export purchases.

Analysis

Corn futures gave back 3 to 4 cents across front months on Wednesday while the CmdtyView national average cash corn fell 3.5 cents to $3.99; Dec 2025 futures traded near $4.37 (down 3.75c), Mar 2026 near $4.445 (down 3.5c) and May 2026 near $4.5225 (down 3.25c), indicating a modest intraday retracement of Tuesday gains. EIA weekly fuel data for the week ending Dec. 5 showed U.S. ethanol production easing to 1.105 million barrels per day (down 21,000 bpd from a record week), ethanol stocks slipping 1,000 barrels to 22.51 million, refiner inputs dropping 6,000 bpd to 851,000 bpd and exports falling 45,000 bpd to 125,000 bpd, collectively signaling softer near-term domestic demand for corn. CFTC positioning as of the week of Nov. 4 showed speculators trimmed 17,990 contracts from their net short to 71,516 contracts, while recent commercial tenders—136,000 MT sold to South Korea and a 65,000 MT Taiwan tender—provide tangible export support. The price pullback therefore appears driven by demand softness and profit-taking but is partially cushioned by reduced speculative short exposure and fresh export purchases; the mixed signal profile raises the importance of watching weekly EIA flows, export tender activity and updated positioning reports as near-term catalysts.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider light, tactical long exposure on shallow dips given export tenders and reduced speculative net shorts, but size positions conservatively given weakening ethanol demand
• Monitor weekly EIA ethanol production, stocks, refiner inputs and export volumes closely for confirmation of demand trend before increasing exposure
• Watch the next CFTC positioning report and additional export tender outcomes as key risk-off/on signals and use short-dated puts or collar structures to hedge near-term downside
• Avoid increasing directional risk until there is a sustained reversal in ethanol demand metrics or clear follow-through in export sales