Who are Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, the Israeli ministers facing sanctions?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political survival hinges on far-right cabinet ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, who face sanctions from multiple countries; their parties hold a relatively small number of seats but wield significant influence, as their departure would collapse the coalition government amidst Netanyahu's ongoing corruption trial and calls for an inquiry into the October 7th attacks. Smotrich, the finance minister, is a messianic settler with a history of activism and controversial views, while Ben-Gvir, the security minister, is a former far-right activist convicted of incitement and support for terrorism, now overseeing the police forces that once arrested him.

Analysis

The stability of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government is significantly dependent on two far-right cabinet ministers, Bezalel Smotrich (Finance Minister) and Itamar Ben-Gvir (National Security Minister), who are now facing sanctions from the UK, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and Norway. These ministers, representing the Religious Zionism and Jewish Power parties respectively, account for 20 of the coalition's 67 Knesset seats, granting them substantial leverage; their potential departure, which they have reportedly threatened, would lead to the collapse of the most right-wing government in Israel's history. This political fragility is amplified by Netanyahu's ongoing corruption trial, calls for an official inquiry into the October 7th, 2023 attacks, and his desire to avoid early elections. Smotrich, a settler from the occupied Golan Heights, advocates for expanding Israeli control over biblical lands and has a history of controversial statements, including self-identifying as a 'fascist homophobe'. Ben-Gvir, who was barred from military service due to extremism and has past convictions for incitement to racism and supporting a terrorist organization, now oversees the police forces. The international sanctions targeting these key figures, coupled with their extreme ideologies and pivotal role in the government, underscore a heightened level of political risk and potential for policy uncertainty within Israel. The general sentiment surrounding this news is strongly negative, reflecting the precarious political environment.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor the stability of the Israeli coalition government, as the departure of key far-right ministers could trigger its collapse and lead to early elections, introducing significant political uncertainty.
• Consider the potential for increased geopolitical risk and policy shifts arising from the influence of sanctioned ministers and the government's right-wing agenda, which may impact investor sentiment and specific sectors sensitive to domestic and international political developments.
• Assess the implications of international sanctions on these high-profile government figures, as this could signal deteriorating diplomatic relations or lead to further pressures impacting Israel's international standing and, indirectly, its economic environment.