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Pfizer could hold a Trump card in its bid for Metsera

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Pfizer could hold a Trump card in its bid for Metsera

U.S. drugmaker Pfizer is in a bidding war for obesity biotech Metsera after Novo Nordisk submitted a "superior" offer, challenging Pfizer's prior agreement for a stake in the lucrative $150 billion obesity drug market. Pfizer, facing declining COVID revenue and patent expirations, has four business days to counter and may leverage CEO Albert Bourla's political connections within the Trump administration or pursue antitrust challenges against dominant player Novo Nordisk, despite concerns about Pfizer's M&A spending history.

Analysis

U.S. drugmaker Pfizer (PFE) faces a critical juncture in its pursuit of obesity biotech Metsera (MTSR) after Novo Nordisk (NVO) submitted a "superior" bid, challenging Pfizer's initial agreement. This bidding war is set against the backdrop of a projected $150 billion obesity drug market, a segment crucial for Pfizer given its recent challenges, including waning COVID-product revenue, looming patent expirations, and a more than 50% decline in value from its pandemic-era high. Pfizer has four business days to make a counteroffer and is exploring alternative strategies, including leveraging CEO Albert Bourla's close ties with the Trump administration for potential political interference. Additionally, Pfizer may pursue an antitrust challenge against Novo Nordisk, a dominant player in the obesity medication space, citing concerns that the acquisition of a pipeline rival could raise competitive risks with the FTC. However, Pfizer must navigate investor perception regarding its M&A history, as analysts note concerns about the company historically overpaying for acquisitions. A significantly increased counteroffer could elicit "mixed reactions" from investors, potentially impacting shareholder sentiment despite the strategic imperative for an obesity win.

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