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Inflation Is Persistent And The Fed Should Be Worried: The June CPI Preview

InflationMonetary PolicyEconomic Data
Inflation Is Persistent And The Fed Should Be Worried: The June CPI Preview

Super-core (Fed’s persistent inflation measure) inflation is up to 3.9%, with the SF Fed attributing the rise to acyclical inflation. This worsening trend is flagged as concerning for the inflation outlook and may complicate the Fed’s path on policy normalization. The development is likely to be meaningfully risk-relevant for rates expectations.

Analysis

Super-core (Fed’s persistent inflation measure) inflation is up to 3.9%, with the SF Fed attributing the rise to acyclical inflation. This worsening trend is flagged as concerning for the inflation outlook and may complicate the Fed’s path on policy normalization. The development is likely to be meaningfully risk-relevant for rates expectations.

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