SpaceX IPO'd, and Anthropic and OpenAI Could Go Public in 2026. Should You Buy All Three?

SpaceX's $75 billion IPO is being framed as a potential template for future public offerings from Anthropic and OpenAI, with Anthropic possibly going public this fall and OpenAI later in 2026 or early 2027. The article cites Anthropic's $965 billion valuation after a $65 billion raise and OpenAI's $852 billion valuation, but warns that post-IPO gains could reverse as investors refocus on fundamentals and cash burn. Overall, it is commentary on IPO timing and valuation rather than a direct operational update.

Analysis

The immediate market beneficiary is not the headline AI names, but the private-markets ecosystem that has been capitalizing on scarcity. A successful mega-IPO cycle would reprice late-stage venture, secondary funds, and crossover managers that have been forced to mark exposure off opaque private rounds; the first-order pop may accrue to listing-day buyers, but the second-order winner is the broader capital-formation complex if it unlocks a durable issuance window. That also creates a signaling effect for other frontier-tech issuers: if the market absorbs one or two trillion-dollar-style deals without a major de-rate, boards across software, defense-tech, and semis will test the window faster.

The more interesting setup is a potential valuation reset after the first tradable burst. The current narrative assumes AI leaders can stay exempt from normal public-market discipline, but once lockups, quarterly cadence, and sell-side models arrive, the market will compare growth rates against burn and incremental gross-margin capture rather than product enthusiasm. That is especially relevant if public investors begin to treat these as software-plus-infrastructure businesses with capex-like economics, which compresses terminal multiples even if top-line growth remains elite.

A contrarian read is that the best trade may be around the event, not the asset itself. If the IPO calendar becomes crowded, incremental demand from index funds, hedge funds, and momentum accounts can be temporarily strong, but liquidity gets diluted quickly when multiple “must-own” deals hit in succession. In that scenario, the post-IPO underperformers could be the ones with the most aggressive revenue-loading and the least transparent burn profile, while the broader market remains exposed to a reversal in risk appetite if rates back up or AI spend scrutiny tightens.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Trade the setup via NDAQ: initiate a tactical long over the next 1-3 months into any confirmed IPO pipeline acceleration; risk/reward is asymmetric because incremental marquee listings improve fee mix, volatility product demand, and secondary activity even if single-deal economics remain lumpy.
• Reduce exposure to the most crowded pre-profitability AI proxy basket on strength; use the IPO narrative as an opportunity to trim high-multiple software/AI names that trade on duration rather than cash flow, since post-IPO comparables usually tighten scrutiny across the whole cohort.
• Pair trade: long NDAQ / short a broad basket of late-stage private-growth proxies over the next 6-12 months. The thesis is that public-market infrastructure monetizes the issuance window while private-markets marks become harder to defend once price discovery is forced into the open.
• For event-driven accounts, structure a short-vol hedge around likely IPO windows rather than outright directionality: buy downside protection 1-2 months post-listing on the highest-burn AI issuer, when initial demand fades and fundamental questions begin to dominate.
• Avoid chasing the first print in any new AI mega-IPO; wait for the first earnings preview or guidance reset. Historically, the better entry is after the post-listing volatility settles and after the market has a real framework for revenue quality, customer concentration, and burn conversion.