Nasdaq Index: Record Highs Follow Cooler PCE and Iran Ceasefire Talk

The immediate winners are not just mega-cap software; it is the entire duration-sensitive equity complex that benefits when crude backs off and the inflation narrative stops deteriorating. Lower oil is a margin tailwind for cloud, semis, discretionary, airlines, and industrials, but the second-order effect is more important: it reduces the odds of a rates spike that would otherwise compress long-duration multiples. In that setup, SNOW is a high-beta expression of the same macro trade because a stronger guidance print plus an AWS commitment turns it from “just another software name” into a proof point that enterprise spending is not freezing.

The market is also underpricing how fragile this rally is to headline reversal risk. A single escalation in the Gulf can lift WTI back above $90 quickly, which would likely re-tighten inflation expectations and force rates higher even if the next data print is benign. That means the trade is not simply “long tech”; it is long a temporary disinflation impulse that can disappear in hours, not weeks, so timing and hedging matter more than conviction.

The contrarian angle is that bearish positioning is not automatically bullish if breadth remains narrow. When leadership is concentrated in a few software and health-care names, the market can look healthy while internals quietly weaken, which creates a setup for a sharp reset if momentum stalls. Still, the fact that sentiment is persistently negative gives pullbacks a higher probability of being bought than of starting a durable bear trend unless the Nasdaq loses the 50% retracement zone and holds below it.

For SNOW specifically, the move may be more about re-rating than fundamentals alone: a large guide-up from a previously discounted base can force systematic buyers to chase, but that also makes the name vulnerable to post-event consolidation once the incremental buyer is exhausted. The better trade is to use the catalyst to express the cloud basket rather than anchor on one stock’s follow-through.