These 2 Oils and Energy Stocks Could Beat Earnings: Why They Should Be on Your Radar

The Zacks Earnings ESP tool is presented as a method to predict companies likely to exceed earnings estimates, based on comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Backtested data indicates that stocks with a positive ESP and a Zacks Rank of #3 or better have delivered positive earnings surprises 70% of the time, averaging 28.3% annual returns over ten years. Coterra Energy (CTRA) and PBF Energy (PBF), both #3-ranked with positive ESPs of +2.97% and +15.90% respectively, are identified as potential candidates for earnings beats ahead of their October 30, 2025 reports.

Analysis

Two energy sector equities, Coterra Energy (CTRA) and PBF Energy (PBF), have been identified as potential candidates for positive earnings surprises based on the Zacks Earnings Expected Surprise Prediction (ESP) model. This quantitative screen flags stocks where the Most Accurate Estimate from recent analyst revisions is higher than the broader Zacks Consensus Estimate. The model's utility is supported by a 10-year backtest showing that stocks with a positive ESP and a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) or better delivered positive earnings surprises 70% of the time, generating average annual returns of 28.3%. Both CTRA and PBF currently hold a #3 (Hold) rank. Coterra Energy exhibits a positive ESP of +2.97%, derived from a Most Accurate EPS Estimate of $0.52 versus a consensus of $0.51. PBF Energy shows a more pronounced signal with a positive ESP of +15.90%, based on a Most Accurate EPS Estimate of -$0.52 compared to a consensus of -$0.62. Both companies are scheduled to report earnings on October 30, 2025, suggesting a potential near-term catalyst if they beat expectations as the model implies.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors employing event-driven strategies may consider establishing bullish positions in Coterra Energy and PBF Energy ahead of their October 30, 2025 earnings releases, given the historically validated positive ESP signals.
• PBF Energy's significantly higher ESP of +15.90% suggests a stronger conviction among recent analyst revisions compared to CTRA's +2.97%, potentially signaling a greater likelihood or magnitude of an earnings beat, a factor to consider in position sizing.
• Caution is warranted as both stocks carry a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), indicating an expectation of in-line market performance, which tempers the bullish ESP signal and suggests these potential trades are more tactical than strategic long-term holdings.