Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (ASO) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release

Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) is anticipated to report Q2 2025 earnings of $2.12 per share, a 4.4% year-over-year increase, on projected revenues of $1.61 billion, up 4%, when it releases results on September 2. Despite these consensus growth expectations, the company's prospects for an earnings beat appear low, characterized by a negative Zacks Earnings ESP of -9.15% and a Zacks Rank of #4, indicating recent bearish analyst sentiment. This analytical outlook, coupled with ASO's history of missing EPS estimates in its last reported quarter and only one beat in the prior four, suggests potential downside risk for the stock if actual results fall short of expectations.

Analysis

Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) is approaching its September 2 earnings release with consensus estimates projecting top- and bottom-line growth. Expectations are for a 4.4% year-over-year increase in earnings to $2.12 per share and a 4% rise in revenue to $1.61 billion. However, several leading indicators suggest a heightened risk of an earnings miss. The company's Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) is a notably negative -9.15%, indicating that the most recent analyst estimates are more bearish than the broader consensus. This is compounded by a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell), a combination that historically makes an earnings beat difficult to predict. This cautious outlook is further substantiated by the company's recent performance, which includes a significant earnings miss of -16.48% in the last reported quarter and a track record of beating consensus EPS estimates only once in the last four quarters. While the consensus EPS estimate did see a minor upward revision of 0.33% over the past 30 days, the more recent negative sentiment captured by the ESP model presents a more compelling, and bearish, near-term signal.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the negative Earnings ESP of -9.15% and a Zacks Rank of #4, investors should be cautious of a potential earnings miss and subsequent downward pressure on the stock price.
• The company's history of missing estimates, including a -16.48% surprise last quarter, suggests that long-only investors may consider hedging their positions ahead of the September 2 report.
• It may be prudent to wait for the actual results and management's forward-looking guidance on the earnings call before initiating or adding to a position, as the current predictive analytics are unfavorable.
• For traders, the combination of a negative ESP and a 'Sell' rank could be interpreted as a bearish signal, potentially warranting consideration of short-side strategies or protective options.