My guide to the IPOs of SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic — including the one I really want to buy

The article centers on three anticipated AI-related IPOs: SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, with SpaceX reportedly having already filed an S-1 and OpenAI/Anthropic potentially following in 2026-2027. It highlights aggressive expected valuations, including a $1.8 trillion target for SpaceX and a possible $4 trillion first-day trading value in a chaotic retail-driven scenario, while warning of post-IPO volatility and index-inclusion selling pressure. Anthropic is portrayed as the strongest fundamentals story, with a $47 billion annual revenue run rate and expected operating profit this quarter.

Analysis

The setup is less an IPO story than a forced reallocation event. If these names clear public markets in quick succession, the first-order winner is the underwriting complex, but the second-order winner is the passive ecosystem that gets compelled to absorb the float later: index funds, large-cap growth ETFs, and systematic vol-control books. That creates a temporary vacuum in adjacent megacaps as the street finances new issuance and funds source liquidity from the only balance-sheet-rich names left standing, which is why the most actionable trade is not necessarily the IPO itself but the beta bleed in the crowded AI winners.

The real asymmetry is between businesses that need capital and businesses that can choose capital. The former will likely print at prices that incentivize early distribution, capping post-listing upside for weeks to months; the latter can be priced as scarcity assets, with first-day supply too small to satisfy demand. That dynamic implies a short-duration pop for the “needs money” deals and a much cleaner runway for the profitable one, but also a higher chance of violent mean reversion once lockup/secondary stock begins to hit.

There is also a subtle competition effect: a public-market halo around private AI leaders can compress valuation dispersion across the entire software stack. That is bullish for vendors selling picks-and-shovels into the model economy, but it can be bearish for incumbent enterprise software if investors rotate from “AI embedded in legacy workflows” to “native AI platforms” as the higher-multiple vehicle. In other words, the IPOs may be less about direct comps and more about repricing the right to own future AI cash flows.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Short-term: buy NVDA puts or run a NVDA/MSFT pair short into the expected IPO-index inclusion window; target 2-6 weeks, as financing and index sourcing pressure can mechanically hit megacap AI leaders before the new issues stabilize.
• Use a staged entry in GS on any weakness tied to deal pipeline hype; 1-3 month horizon, with favorable convexity if underwriting fees and syndicate activity expand, but keep size moderate because the market may already be discounting the obvious fee upside.
• Avoid chasing the IPO opens outright; if participating, use limit orders only and size at 25-50% of intended exposure, then add only after the first post-listing consolidation. Risk/reward is materially better after day-1 volatility compresses.
• Relative value: long a profitable AI enabler basket vs short a cash-burning mega-cap software proxy over 1-2 quarters; the market should reward self-funding growth and punish any company that needs repeated capital raises to stay in the race.
• Watch for a buy-the-dip opportunity in MSFT/AAPL only after forced selling from index reconstitution has passed; if the selloff is flow-driven rather than fundamental, the rebound should occur within days, not months.