Antofagasta PLC is poised for strong interim results, with Deutsche Bank forecasting H1 EBITDA of $2.05 billion and 315kt production, driven by better-than-expected cost performance and unchanged guidance for sequential output growth. The company's steady operations and approved near-term production growth have made it a top-performing copper stock this year, with a 14-cent dividend forecast. However, analysts caution that a significant investment cycle will likely result in negative free cash flow in 2025 and minimal FCF in 2026.
Antofagasta PLC is positioned for a strong interim results announcement, underpinned by a recent operational update that highlighted better-than-expected cost performance in the first half. Deutsche Bank's forecast anticipates H1 EBITDA of $2.05 billion on production of 315kt, with the company's full-year guidance remaining unchanged and pointing to a sequential increase in output. This steady operational execution, coupled with a fully-approved, near-term production growth pipeline, has contributed to the stock's outperformance relative to sector peers, many of whom have issued downgrades. However, this positive operational narrative is significantly tempered by the company's heavy investment cycle. Analysts project net debt will conclude the half at approximately $2.2 billion and caution that the capital-intensive phase will lead to negative free cash flow in 2025 and minimal FCF in 2026, which could create a drag on future shareholder returns despite a forecasted dividend of 14 cents per share for the current period.
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moderately positive
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0.45
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