Is XRP Still Worth Buying at Today's Price?

XRP is trading at $1.37, about 62% below its July 2025 peak near $3.65, and the article argues that network growth at RippleNet does not translate cleanly into value accrual for XRP holders. Only about 40% of RippleNet institutions reportedly use XRP for settlement, while RLUSD stablecoin adoption could allow Ripple to grow without supporting XRP’s price. Despite $1.4 billion in spot ETF inflows since November 2025 and Ripple’s 40 billion XRP held in escrow/operational wallets, the piece concludes there is no urgent reason to sell but also no compelling case to add fresh capital.

Analysis

The core equity-style mistake here is treating XRP as a tollbooth on Ripple’s network rather than a residual claimant on protocol economics. If settlement demand is increasingly routed through a stablecoin rail, the network can scale while XRP’s velocity rises and its duration of ownership falls, which is structurally negative for price discovery because higher usage does not translate into lower float or persistent absorption. That makes the asset more akin to a high-beta policy option on Ripple’s product decisions than a clean fundamental cash-flow proxy.

The second-order winner is likely the broader stablecoin/payment infrastructure stack, not XRP itself. If banks standardize on tokenized cash or stable settlement assets, the competitive moat shifts from bridge-currency liquidity to compliance, distribution, and treasury tooling; that benefits venues, custodians, and payment processors with fiat on/off-ramp advantages, while compressing the niche for transactional tokens. The market may be underestimating how quickly a “successful” payment network can commoditize its native coin when the best execution path is whichever token minimizes balance-sheet friction.

Catalyst timing matters: over the next 1-3 months, flows from ETFs and retail enthusiasm can keep the tape supported even if fundamentals remain weak, so the trade is more momentum than thesis in the near term. Over 6-18 months, the key risk is protocol and product governance: any move by Ripple to subsidize XRP usage, alter incentives, or constrain RLUSD adoption could re-rate the coin sharply, but absent that, the base case is periodic rallies fading into supply overhang. The contrarian point is that the market may already be pricing the “XRP as network token” story too generously; if settlement adoption keeps expanding without sustained holding demand, upside is probably being pulled forward by sentiment rather than earned by utility.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Avoid initiating fresh long XRP here; use rallies to trim exposure unless you have a specific catalyst view on Ripple governance. Risk/reward skews poor over 6-12 months because utility growth is not mechanically feeding into holder returns.
• If seeking a relative-value expression, consider a long stablecoin/payment infrastructure basket versus short XRP via options or small cash short, targeting a 3-6 month horizon. Thesis: network adoption accrues to rails and compliance providers, while XRP’s float remains vulnerable to sentiment reversals.
• For tactical upside, only trade XRP on momentum with tight risk controls: buy breakouts after ETF-flow acceleration, but finance with covered calls or defined-risk call spreads. Treat as a 2-8 week trade, not a strategic allocation.
• Watch for any Ripple announcement that changes XRP retention economics or incentive design; if credible, re-evaluate quickly because that is the only clean catalyst that can convert usage into sustained bid support.
• Relative-value watchlist: long NDAQ on crypto-market-structure/ETF volume growth if digital-asset flows deepen, while avoiding direct XRP beta. The exchange/market-infrastructure layer is better positioned to monetize adoption than the token itself.