These 2 Oils and Energy Stocks Could Beat Earnings: Why They Should Be on Your Radar

The Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) filter, which compares the most accurate analyst estimate to the consensus, is presented as a tool for identifying stocks likely to exceed earnings expectations. Historically, combining a positive ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 or better has resulted in a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time, yielding average annual returns of 28.3% over a decade. Currently, Cenovus Energy (CVE) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY), both Zacks Rank #3 oil and energy stocks, exhibit positive ESPs of +13.33% and +19.41% respectively, suggesting potential upside surprises ahead of their upcoming earnings reports in late 2025.

Analysis

According to a quantitative analysis using the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) model, both Cenovus Energy (CVE) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) are showing indicators of a potential positive earnings surprise in their upcoming quarterly reports. This model, which compares the most recent analyst estimate to the consensus, has a backtested success rate where a positive ESP combined with a Zacks Rank of #3 or better resulted in an earnings beat 70% of the time, yielding average annual returns of 28.3% over a decade. Currently, Cenovus Energy, with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), has a positive ESP of +13.33% based on a Most Accurate Estimate of $0.51 versus a consensus of $0.45 ahead of its October 30, 2025 report. Similarly, Occidental Petroleum, also ranked #3 (Hold), exhibits a +19.41% ESP with its Most Accurate Estimate at $0.58 against a consensus of $0.49 for its November 11, 2025 reporting date. These metrics flag both energy firms as having a statistically significant likelihood of surpassing their consensus earnings per share forecasts.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors may consider establishing tactical long positions in Cenovus Energy (CVE) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) ahead of their Q3/Q4 2025 earnings reports to capitalize on a potential post-announcement price increase driven by an earnings beat.
• The bullish ESP signal should be weighed against the neutral Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) rating for both companies, which suggests they are only expected to perform in-line with the broader market, so any position should be risk-managed accordingly.
• Beyond these specific tickers, investors can utilize the Zacks Earnings ESP filter as a systematic tool to screen for other pre-earnings opportunities, particularly within the energy sector, where recent analyst revisions are signaling positive momentum.