Corn Bulls Sneaking Higher Ahead of Export Sales Data

Corn futures extended recent gains on Wednesday, rising 4-5 cents, with preliminary open interest indicating ownership rotation and the national average cash price increasing to $3.92 3/4. This upward momentum is supported by robust ethanol demand, as daily production reached 1.087 million barrels while stocks significantly declined by 324,000 barrels despite lower exports. Market focus now shifts to upcoming Export Sales data, with expectations for old crop bookings between 0.5-1.2 MMT and new crop sales between 400,000-900,000 MT, which will likely influence near-term price action.

Analysis

Corn futures are demonstrating continued upward momentum, extending recent gains with contracts rising 4 to 5 cents and the national average cash price climbing to $3.92 3/4. This positive price action is underpinned by fundamental strength in the ethanol market, a key demand driver for corn. According to the latest EIA data, a slight increase in average daily ethanol production to 1.087 million barrels per day coincided with a significant 324,000-barrel drawdown in ethanol stocks. This inventory reduction is particularly bullish as it occurred despite a decline in both exports and refiner inputs, signaling robust underlying domestic consumption. The market's immediate focus now shifts to the forthcoming Export Sales data, which will be a critical near-term catalyst. Trade expectations are for old crop bookings between 0.5 and 1.2 MMT, and a result within this range would likely reinforce the current positive sentiment.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor the upcoming Export Sales report, as a strong figure within or exceeding the 0.5-1.2 MMT expectation for old crop sales would likely validate the current bullish trend and could trigger further price appreciation.
• The significant drawdown in ethanol inventories signals strong domestic demand, providing a fundamental support for corn prices; this suggests that existing long positions are well-supported by current end-use market dynamics.
• Given the positive price action and supportive ethanol data, a bullish stance is warranted, but traders should be prepared for potential volatility following the export data release, which could either accelerate the trend or introduce near-term consolidation.