Costco Smashes Holiday Pie Sales, Black Friday Records

Costco reported robust holiday and quarterly performance, saying it sold a record 4.5 million pies in the three days before Thanksgiving 2025 (about 7,000 per warehouse), up 500,000 from 2024, set a Halloween food-court record with 358,000 pizzas in one day, and generated more than $250 million in non-food Black Friday e-commerce orders. For Q1 the company beat estimates with revenue of $67.31 billion (est. $67.14B), adjusted EPS of $4.50 (est. $4.27), net sales up 8.2% YoY and comps up 6.4% YoY, signaling resilient consumer demand and strong holiday traffic. Bernstein maintained an Outperform and nudged its price target higher (from $1,134 to $1,146), underscoring that merchandise and e-commerce momentum support Costco’s membership-based model and near-term upside for the shares.

Analysis

Costco reported pronounced holiday and quarterly strength highlighted by management: the company sold a record 4.5 million pies in the three days before Thanksgiving 2025 (roughly 7,000 pies per warehouse), a 500,000-unit increase versus 2024, set a Halloween food-court record with 358,000 pizzas sold in one day, and generated over $250 million in non-food Black Friday e-commerce orders. These anecdotal operational metrics were accompanied by solid reported results for Q1 — revenue of $67.31 billion versus $67.14 billion consensus and adjusted EPS of $4.50 versus $4.27 — with net sales up 8.2% year-over-year and comparable sales up 6.4%.

Bernstein kept an Outperform rating and nudged its price target from $1,134 to $1,146, reflecting analyst confidence that merchandise and e-commerce momentum support Costco’s membership model and near-term upside. The combination of strong in-warehouse food-court volumes and a large non-food online holiday haul suggests both foot traffic and digital channels contributed to the beat, which is supportive for top-line resilience.

The primary risk is that some of these figures are seasonal spikes; sustainability will depend on subsequent comparable-sales trends, membership renewal dynamics and guidance in upcoming reports. Sentiment signals are moderately positive with a modest market-impact score, so near-term upside appears plausible but requires monitoring of Q2 guidance and margin commentary for confirmation.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the revenue and EPS beat plus holiday e-commerce strength, investors should consider maintaining or modestly adding to core COST positions on shallow pullbacks,
• Monitor next-quarter guidance, comparable-sales trajectory and e-commerce order growth as the primary indicators of whether holiday momentum is sustainable,
• Consider modest hedges or position sizing controls to protect against normalization after seasonal spikes and watch for membership-renewal metrics and margin commentary that would validate continued outperformance,
• Track analyst revisions and price-target changes (e.g., Bernstein's slight raise) as a barometer of consensus conviction before making larger allocations