Prediction: These 2 Obesity Drug Stocks Could Double in 2026

The article highlights two obesity-drug names with potential catalysts: Viking Therapeutics expects third-quarter data from its VK-2735 maintenance trial and is advancing both injectable phase 3 work and an oral candidate, while AbbVie reported positive phase 1 results for ABBV-295 with weight loss of more than 7% to more than 9%. The piece argues both stocks could benefit from the nearly $100 billion obesity market opportunity, with AbbVie trading at about 15x forward earnings and Viking having previously surged 121% in a single session after trial data. Overall, this is bullish commentary rather than a fresh company announcement.

Analysis

The real takeaway is not “obesity is growing,” but that the market is entering a catalyst-rich phase where dispersion will be driven by trial design quality, not just category beta. VKTX has the highest convexity because it is still priced like a binary option on execution; any clean read-through on maintenance durability or oral differentiation could force fast multiple expansion as funds chase the next credible challenger to Lilly/Novo. The second-order effect is that every positive readout from a non-incumbent widens the addressable pool for obesity-capex, benefitting CROs, trial-enrollment vendors, and API suppliers, while pressuring near-term sentiment on the leaders only if the data imply class-wide tolerability or duration advantages.

ABBV is a different trade: it is not a pure obesity story, but a call option on pipeline optionality layered onto a cash-generating base. The market is likely undervaluing how much even a mid-single-digit contributor can matter when the stock is already re-rated down to a lower earnings multiple; if obesity becomes a credible second growth leg, the stock can de-rate less on patent cliffs because investors will start underwriting a longer growth runway. The hidden risk is that amylin may get treated as “too early to matter” until later-stage data force a revision, which creates a potential step-function move rather than a smooth rerating.

NVO is the relative loser in this framing, not fundamentally, but positionally: crowded ownership plus expectations of category leadership makes it vulnerable to any sign that competitors can offer better tolerability, convenience, or maintenance behavior. The contrarian view is that the market is probably overpaying for the “next GLP-1” narrative in VKTX while underpricing ABBV’s diversification benefit; the cleaner setup may be to own cash-flow resilience and trade the speculative upside with defined risk. Time horizon matters: VKTX is a weeks-to-months catalyst trade around readouts, while ABBV is a 6-18 month rerating story if the pipeline continues to de-risk.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long VKTX into the next clinical catalyst with a defined-risk structure: buy the stock only on pullbacks or use call spreads expiring after the Q3 data window; thesis is 20-40% upside on a credible maintenance or oral-program signal, but size small because downside on a miss can be 25-35%.
• Long ABBV as a lower-volatility obesity optionality trade over the next 6-12 months; target a rerating toward low-20s forward P/E if pipeline progress persists, with 15%+ upside even before obesity becomes material to earnings.
• Pair trade: long ABBV / short NVO on a 3-6 month horizon to express 'pipeline underappreciation vs crowded incumbent ownership'; risk is NVO re-accelerates or ABBV’s trial cadence slips, but the setup favors ABBV on valuation asymmetry.
• Use VKTX call spreads rather than outright equity ahead of data if implied volatility is elevated; this captures the binary upside while capping premium bleed, with best entry after any pre-catalyst weakness.
• If the market starts treating obesity as a class-wide readout event, look for suppliers of trial infrastructure and specialty manufacturing to outperform on second-order volume, but keep those trades short-dated because they will likely mean-revert after the headline window.