Arm and Snowflake among market cap stock movers on Thursday

The tape is pricing a broad “durable demand + lower policy risk” combo, but the real signal is dispersion: software and AI infrastructure are being rewarded for optionality, while hardware, storage, and semi-capex names are being punished for any hint of decelerating bookings. SNOW’s move suggests the market is willing to pay up for governance/agent-enablement layers because they sit above model commoditization; that creates read-through for MDB and IBM, but also raises competitive pressure on point solutions with weaker platform distribution. MSFT’s coding-model catalyst reinforces the same dynamic: the winners are the platform owners that can bundle AI into workflows, not the pure-play model layer.

The industrial and defense cluster looks better supported than the headline index implies. KTOS, AVAV, HEI, and even IOT are benefiting from a market that is increasingly paying for backlog visibility and mission-critical demand rather than broad cyclical beta. That said, the move is likely more durable in defense electronics and autonomy than in legacy industrials like CAT, KLAC, or LRCX, where any macro hiccup can quickly reprice 2026 capex assumptions lower. The weaker prints in PLAB and P are a reminder that inventory normalization can look fine until guidance snaps; these names are more vulnerable over the next 1-2 quarters than the market is pricing.

On the consumer side, DLTR and BBY are less a clean macro bullish signal than a short-covering reflex around better-than-feared margins and promotional discipline. If real spending stays soft, these rallies can fade as tariff, wage, and shrink pressures reassert within 1-3 quarters. The contrarian setup is in names like P and PLAB: the market is likely underestimating how quickly “miss + guide-down” can force multiple compression when buyers have already crowded into perceived AI beneficiaries. Conversely, the AI governance and defense-autonomy subthemes still look under-owned relative to their earnings durability.