Prediction: XRP (Ripple) Will Be Worth This Much in 12 Months

The market is treating XRP like a payments infrastructure proxy, but the key mistake is conflating network adoption with token scarcity. If banks can route value through Ripple rails without structurally needing XRP, then adoption helps Ripple’s enterprise franchise more than it helps the token’s monetary premium. That creates a classic “good company, bad coin” setup where usage can rise while the asset that retail owns still derates.

The stablecoin angle is the bigger second-order threat than the headline suggests. A native bank-grade stable settlement asset absorbs the exact function that speculative bridge tokens are supposed to play, and once liquidity migrates there, XRP risks becoming residual plumbing used mainly for fees. That matters because fee burn alone rarely supports a durable valuation if turnover is low and inventory remains large.

The chart risk is path-dependent: a prior blow-off top followed by a 95% drawdown is a warning that this token’s holder base is momentum-sensitive and regime-driven. In a risk-off crypto tape, XRP has little fundamental bid support because the “utility” narrative does not create an earnings-like floor. The cleanest bear case is therefore not just valuation compression but a liquidity air pocket if marginal buyers realize they do not need the asset to access the network.

The contrarian wrinkle is that regulatory normalization can reduce existential discount rates for centralized tokens, so the next upside catalyst would likely be policy or exchange/distribution access rather than product adoption. But absent a new use case that forces XRP to be held, not just moved, rallies should be sold into. Time horizon is months, not days: the catalyst path is slower than the market’s memory decay, which favors patience on the short side.