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Market Impact: 0.85

The Iran War Is Far From Over

Geopolitics & WarEnergy Markets & PricesCommodities & Raw MaterialsCommodity FuturesFutures & OptionsTrade Policy & Supply ChainMarket Technicals & FlowsSanctions & Export Controls

Brent crude surged to $100 after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with extreme backwardation signaling acute near-term tightness and price volatility. The piece warns that expectations of a quick resolution are misplaced, citing structural and leadership issues in Iran that make a near-term ceasefire unlikely, implying a sustained supply shock and elevated energy-market risk.

Analysis

Brent crude surged to $100 after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with extreme backwardation signaling acute near-term tightness and price volatility. The piece warns that expectations of a quick resolution are misplaced, citing structural and leadership issues in Iran that make a near-term ceasefire unlikely, implying a sustained supply shock and elevated energy-market risk.

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