Net Asset Value(s)

Valuation dated 2026-02-09 for LISTD PRIVTE EQTY UCITS (ISIN IE0008ZGI5C1) reports 10,837,022.0000 units and a NAV per unit of USD 32.5088, published 10 Feb 2026 08:00 CET. The note is a routine net asset value disclosure for the listed private equity UCITS and contains no additional operational or market-moving information.

Analysis

Market structure: Listed alternative managers (Blackstone BX, KKR, KKR, Apollo APO, Ares ARES) and liquid private-credit BDCs (ARCC) are the direct winners if private NAVs hold or exits accelerate, because they capture carried interest and fee re-rating; late-stage VC funds and public high‑multiple growth names are the losers if capital rotates into higher-yielding private-credit and buyout returns. Large dry powder (order of magnitude $1–2tn) and constrained deal flow imply deal pricing competition now—pressure on entry multiples but support for managers with distribution capability, tightening spreads for syndicated high-yield issuance.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include a sudden liquidity shock that forces markdowns of 20–40% across private NAVs, and regulatory changes (carried‑interest tax hikes >10 percentage points) that could knock 10–25% off manager earnings; immediate (days) risk is redemption gating/market rumor, short-term (3–6 months) is valuation resets at exits, long-term (12–24 months) is rate-driven leverage stress on LBO returns. Hidden dependencies: NAVs are mark‑to‑model and highly path‑dependent on exit markets and FX (USD strength can add ~5–10% to USD‑reported NAVs for non‑USD assets); catalysts include a ramp in IPOs/M&A within 90–180 days or central bank rate cuts that would re‑liquidate stuck positions.

Trade implications: Tactical overweight listed alternatives (BX, KKR, ARES) and selective BDCs (ARCC) while trimming long-duration public growth (QQQ/ARKK) — target a 2–4% tactical reallocation over 2–6 weeks. Direct plays: establish 2% position in BX and 1.5% in KKR, buy 6‑month call spreads on KKR sized to 0.5–1% NAV financed by selling 4–8 week 5% OTM calls; pair trade: long BX (2%) vs short QQQ (1.2%) to hedge beta; exit or trim on a 15–20% rally or after 6 months if IPO/M&A catalysts fail.

Contrarian angles: Consensus understates the speed at which listed managers can monetize private gains—if exits pick up, expect a 15–30% rerating in BX/KKR within 3–9 months; conversely the market may be underpricing a concentrated redemption/credit shock, so size limits (max 3% per manager) matter. Historical parallel: 2012–2014 re‑rating after liquidity returned; unintended consequence: crowded long alternatives plus leverage can create forced selling in correlated credit stress, so use options or position limits to control tail exposure.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 3.5% collective overweight to listed private managers: 2.0% in Blackstone (BX) and 1.5% in KKR (KKR) over the next 2–6 weeks; set tactical stop-loss at -12% and plan to trim on +15–20% upside or after 6 months if exit activity stalls.
• Add 1.5% exposure to yield via Ares Capital (ARCC) or Ares Management (ARES) to capture private‑credit coupons; hedge 50% of duration risk by buying 6‑month protective puts (10–15% OTM) if credit spreads widen >100bp.
• Implement pair trade: long BX (2.0% NAV) vs short QQQ (1.2% NAV) to express rerating of private managers vs public growth; rebalance if relative performance moves >8% in either direction or after 90 days.
• Use options to leverage upside with controlled risk: buy 6‑month 25‑delta calls on KKR sized to 0.5–1.0% NAV and finance by selling near-term (4–8 week) 5% OTM calls; close if implied vol rises >40% or spot moves >20%.
• Set concrete monitor triggers: if US legislation proposes carried interest tax increase >10 percentage points or if headline IPO volumes remain below 50% of 2021 monthly average for 90 days, reduce listed private manager exposure by 50% within 30 days.