Exclusive-Nvidia working on new AI chip for China that outperforms the H20, sources say

Nvidia is reportedly developing a new, more powerful AI chip for China, tentatively named B30A, based on its latest Blackwell architecture, which would surpass the currently approved H20 model. While samples are expected as early as next month, the initiative faces significant uncertainty regarding U.S. regulatory approval, reflecting persistent Washington concerns over China's access to advanced AI technology. This development underscores the ongoing U.S.-Sino trade tensions and the volatile policy landscape for chip exports, despite China contributing 13% of Nvidia's revenue.

Analysis

Nvidia is actively developing a new AI chip for the Chinese market, tentatively named B30A, based on its next-generation Blackwell architecture. This chip is designed to be more powerful than the currently permitted H20 model, featuring a single-die design projected to deliver half the raw computing power of the flagship B300 accelerator. Despite retaining key features like high-bandwidth memory and NVLink, the initiative faces significant geopolitical and regulatory headwinds. U.S. regulatory approval is described as "far from guaranteed" due to persistent concerns in Washington about China's access to advanced AI technology. This uncertainty is underscored by recent policy volatility, including an abrupt halt and subsequent resumption of H20 sales earlier this year. With China representing 13% of Nvidia's revenue in the past fiscal year, the development of the B30A highlights the company's strategic imperative to navigate complex U.S. export controls to serve this critical market, even as the outcome of its lobbying efforts remains highly uncertain.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor U.S. Commerce Department announcements on export controls, as regulatory approval for the B30A chip is the single most critical variable determining its success and impact on revenue.
• The potential to secure a portion of the 13% of revenue derived from China is significant, but this upside remains speculative and should be heavily discounted in valuation models until there is concrete evidence of U.S. government approval.
• Any delay or denial of the B30A's approval could create a vacuum in China's high-end AI chip market, potentially benefiting domestic competitors and altering the long-term competitive landscape for Nvidia in the region.