Piper Sandler maintains overweight rating on Moderna stock

Moderna (MRNA) received an Overweight rating reaffirmation from Piper Sandler with a $69 price target following FDA approval of its updated COVID-19 vaccine, mNEXSPIKE, for specific adult populations, with projected COVID-19 vaccine revenues reaching $1.77 billion this year despite an expected 35% sales decline in fiscal 2025; however, the company withdrew its application for the combination flu-COVID vaccine and faces uncertainty as the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services canceled a $590 million award for the avian flu vaccine's late-stage development despite positive Phase I/II trial results.

Analysis

Moderna's stock (MRNA) received a reaffirmed Overweight rating and a $69.00 price target from Piper Sandler, juxtaposed against a wide analyst target range of $20 to $198, underscoring significant market uncertainty and reflecting the stock's over 81% decline in the past year. This follows the FDA approval of its new COVID-19 vaccine, mNEXSPIKE, for adults over 65 and at-risk individuals aged 12-64, with analysts anticipating $1.77 billion in COVID-19 vaccine revenues this year. However, InvestingPro data indicates an expected 35% sales decline for fiscal 2025. Financially, Moderna holds more cash ($8.4 billion reported end Q1 2025) than debt and maintains a strong current ratio of 4.22, yet is experiencing rapid cash burn. Operationally, the company voluntarily withdrew its Biologics License Application for the combination flu-COVID vaccine (mRNA-1083), planning a resubmission with Phase III data for the mRNA-1010 flu vaccine expected mid-2025. Despite positive Phase I/II results for its H5 avian flu vaccine (mRNA-1018), a $590 million U.S. Department of Health and Human Services award for its late-stage development was canceled. Moderna is also awaiting Phase III data for its CMVictory vaccine (mRNA-1647) later this year and has submitted an updated COVID-19 vaccine formula, Spikevax 2025-2026, targeting the LP.8.1 variant. Brookline Capital Markets maintained a Buy rating with a $198 target, viewing the mRNA-1083 withdrawal as strategic. Regulatory headwinds include new FDA trial requirements for COVID-19 boosters for healthy individuals under 65, potentially impacting future booster uptake.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor Moderna's cash burn rate against its pipeline progress, particularly upcoming Phase III data for mRNA-1010 and mRNA-1647, given the canceled HHS funding for mRNA-1018.
• The wide dispersion in analyst price targets and significant past stock volatility suggest a high-risk, high-reward profile, warranting careful position sizing and risk management.
• Consider the potential impact of evolving regulatory landscapes, such as the FDA's new trial requirements for COVID-19 boosters, on Moderna's future revenue streams from its COVID-19 franchise.
• Evaluate the strategic rationale behind the mRNA-1083 BLA withdrawal and resubmission plan, as successful execution could unlock a significant new market, but delays or negative data could further pressure the stock.