Bear of the Day: Grupo Aeroportuario Del Pacifico (PAC)

Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (PAC) is flagged as a high-risk name ahead of its Q4 2025 report on Feb. 23, carrying a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) after seven consecutive quarterly EPS misses and an average EPS surprise of -6% over the last four quarters. The shares have rallied nearly 50% over the past year and trade above $270 (roughly 21x forward earnings), but analyst revisions have ticked down in the last 60 days and FY26 sales growth is projected to slow to ~4%; consensus still models EPS up ~7% for FY25 and a further ~27% in FY26 to $13.14, leaving room for downside and potential selling pressure if execution again falls short.

Analysis

Market structure: A weaker-than-expected Q4 (scheduled Feb 23, 2025) will directly benefit short-term sellers, options volatility sellers, and competing airport operators with cleaner execution (e.g., ASURB.MX, OMAB.MX), while hurting PAC shareholders, concession partners dependent on traffic-linked fees, and suppliers facing margin compression. GAP’s 21x forward PE prices in ~4% FY26 revenue growth and assumes execution improvement; persistent -6% EPS surprises (7 misses) imply pricing is vulnerable to multiple compression if revisions keep sliding.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include regulatory moves on airport concessions or renegotiation (Mexico), a sudden peso depreciation >5% vs USD that raises reported costs, or operational shocks (natural disaster/airline capacity pullbacks) that could knock 15-25% off consensus cash flow. Immediate (days): expect a 5-12% move around earnings; short-term (weeks/months): analyst revisions could shave >5% of market cap; long-term (12–24 months): traffic recovery and non-aero revenue mix determine whether FY26 +27% EPS is achievable.

Trade implications: Direct play — implement a defined-risk bearish options position: buy a 3-month PAC put spread (buy $250 / sell $225) sized to 2–3% portfolio risk ahead of Feb 23, exit within 2–5 trading days post-release or if PAC closes above $295 (stop). Pair trade — short PAC and go long ASURB.MX or OMAB.MX (equal notional) for 3–6 months to capture relative execution; trim if PAC’s 4-week EPS revisions stabilize (+2% reversal). If long PAC, sell 1–2 month covered calls at $300 to harvest premium until execution improves.

Contrarian angles: The market may be underestimating non-aeronautical revenue resilience and secular tourism tailwinds (Cancún/Mexico Pacific), so a material miss that drops PAC >15% could create a tactical buy zone (add on weakness to $220–230 with a 12–24 month hold). Conversely, if analyst revisions keep falling another 3–5% within 60 days, downside could outpace recovery as passive flows and momentum sellers amplify moves — avoid size increases until one quarter of positive EPS surprise and +2% net revision turn.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a defined-risk bearish options position: buy a 3-month PAC put spread (buy $250 / sell $225) sized to 2–3% of portfolio risk before Feb 23, 2025 earnings; exit 2–5 trading days after release or on a close > $295 (stop-loss).
• Initiate a pair trade: short PAC equal notional and go long ASURB.MX or OMAB.MX for 3–6 months to capture relative outperformance; cover if PAC’s 4-week EPS revisions improve by +2% or ASURB/OMAB underperform by >8%.
• If exposed long PAC, sell 1–2 month covered calls at the $300 strike to collect premium until evidence of margin recovery (one quarter with EPS beat and +2% revision) — buy back if shares trade >$320 intraday.
• If PAC drops into $220–230 on a material miss (>15% post-earnings), consider establishing a 1–2% opportunistic long as a contrarian recovery play with a 12–24 month horizon, re-evaluate after next two quarterly results.