SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic could be 3 of the biggest venture-backed IPOs of all time

SpaceX is reportedly targeting a $50 billion IPO at a $1.5 trillion valuation, and PitchBook says SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic’s potential 2026 listings could conceivably create more value than all VC-backed IPOs since 2000 combined. Investors who backed SpaceX at a $137 billion 2023 valuation would stand to see roughly 10x on the reported valuation, but returns will be highly concentrated among large investors. Macroeconomic and market risks — notably the war in Iran lifting energy prices and weak recent IPO showings (e.g., Figma shares down ~80%) — mean the upside is uncertain and the tech IPO market could remain effectively closed if the trio stays private.

Analysis

A small number of outsized private exits will reallocate real, spendable cash back into the venture and growth ecosystem — but the distribution will be highly non-linear. Top-tier funds and strategic corporate investors will disproportionately capture recycled LP capital, widening the fundraising gap versus smaller managers and increasing concentration risk in early-stage deal flow over the next 12–24 months.

If the marquee private names opt to remain private, the signal will be twofold: the public IPO channel remains impaired and paper valuations across the private cap table will face re‑rating pressure. That pathway amplifies tail risk for secondaries and late-stage funds exposed to mark-to-model valuations; expect forced selling or wider bid/offer spreads in private secondaries within weeks to months if primary liquidity stalls.

For public markets, the marginal effect is a push towards owning scalable incumbents and service providers to the mega‑private winners (e.g., semiconductor equipment, cloud infrastructure, aerospace suppliers) rather than small, unprofitable new issuers. This creates tactical volatility windows around any actual IPOs where long-biased tech names and their supplier chains can gap higher, followed by multi-week mean reversion as investors recycle proceeds into later-stage fundraises and passive allocations.

Key Decisions for Investors

• NVDA — Buy a defined‑risk 6–9 month bull call spread sized to risk 1% of portfolio. Rationale: captures re-rating if AI/private exits drive incremental demand for semiconductors; target 2–3x return if shares +25–40%; exit or hedge if IV jumps >30% or share price drops >15% in 2 weeks.
• MSFT — Acquire 12–18 month upside (long calls or 1:1 equity with a protective collar) sized to 2–3% risk. Rationale: strategic investor optionality and durable AI revenue comp; aim for 20–30% upside over 12 months while capping downside to ~15% via collar if macro risk rises.
• TROW — Go long the equity or a 9–12 month call spread (size 0.5–1% portfolio). Rationale: direct beneficiary from LP cash recycling and fundraising momentum; target 30–50% upside on re‑accelerated fundraising flows, stop‑loss at 12–15% to guard against broad risk‑off.
• FIG — Initiate a small, asymmetric short (or buy puts) over 3–6 months, paired with a long NVDA/MSFT position to create a directional arbitrage. Rationale: post‑IPO sentiment vulnerability and higher downside skew; position size limited to 0.5% risk and capped via bought calls/puts to limit tail risk.
• Macro hedge trigger — If Brent/energy prices rise >10% in 14 days or geopolitical risk indices spike, reduce net long tech exposure by 25% and purchase 2–3 month S&P downside protection (puts) to protect against a liquidity‑driven IPO freeze that would compress multiples across growth names.