The SP500 is currently in its fifth Elliott Wave, projected to reach a long-standing target of 7120, according to recent analysis. The market has maintained its upward trajectory, demonstrating resilience through a shallower-than-expected pullback and the government shutdown, which had no material impact. Analysts warn that upon reaching the 7120 target, the probability of a significant market correction, potentially akin to a '2022-like bear market,' will substantially increase, with key warning levels for the current wave's completion noted at 6843, 6772, 6752, and 6655.
The S&P 500 (SPX) is currently positioned in its fifth Elliott Wave, targeting a long-standing objective of 7120. This projection is based on the first wave's length, indicating a potential rise to 7126 from the October 14 low of 6555. The market has demonstrated resilience, with the recent pullback being shallower and shorter than anticipated, and the government shutdown having no material impact on its upward trajectory. Previous Elliott Wave analysis accurately predicted the non-impact of the government shutdown and the market's magnetic attraction to the 6776-6815 range. Although the subsequent correction to 6555 was less severe than the forecasted 3-5% correction to 6150-6375, the index quickly reached a new all-time high, reinforcing the bullish sentiment described as "the downside disappoints and the upside surprises." Upon reaching the 7120 target, the probability of a significant market correction, potentially akin to a "2022-like bear market," is expected to increase substantially. Investors should monitor specific warning levels for the completion of the current green W-5, which are set at 6843 (25% chance of completion), 6772 (50% chance), 6752 (75% chance), and 6655 (definitely over).
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