Is Michael Burry Still Bearish on Palantir? Here's What He Has to Say

Michael Burry remains short Palantir via June 17, 2027 $50 puts and Dec. 19, 2026 $100 puts, even after the stock briefly stabilized on Trump’s Truth Social praise. The article frames the core debate as valuation versus fundamentals: Palantir posted Q4 2025 revenue of $1.41B (+70% YoY), 41% GAAP operating margin, and guided 2026 revenue to $7.182B-$7.198B, but still trades at 224x trailing P/E, 111x forward P/E, and 76x sales. Shares were cited at $138.02, down 20.57% YTD, with the next key catalyst being Q1 2026 earnings in early May.

Analysis

PLTR is turning into a classic “great business, impossible multiple” setup: the operating line is still compounding fast, but the market is implicitly underwriting several more years of hypergrowth with no meaningful deceleration. That creates an unusually clean battlefield for shorts: they do not need a business deterioration, only a modest growth normalization or a multiple reset as the 200-day remains well overhead. The key second-order effect is that Palantir’s valuation has become a benchmark for AI software exuberance, so any air pocket in PLTR can spill into the higher-beta government/AI software complex through ETF and factor de-risking.

The biggest near-term catalyst is not the next earnings beat itself, but the market’s reaction function to anything less than “blowout plus raise.” When a stock is already priced for perfection, the asymmetry is in the guide, not the reported quarter. If customer adds or commercial growth rate lose even a small amount of momentum, the market will likely re-rate the name faster than the fundamental model can catch up, especially with insider selling as an available narrative anchor for risk-off capital.

The contrarian angle is that the bear case may already be front-running the right thesis but with the wrong timing. Burry is paying carry into a name with powerful momentum, and that matters because the stock can remain structurally expensive longer than valuation models suggest if index demand and retail conviction keep absorbing supply. The true risk to the short is a continued AI spending cycle that keeps order conversion and deal sizes elevated into 2027, in which case the “too expensive” argument stays correct but monetization continues to outrun gravity for another several quarters.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Maintain or add to PLTR bearish exposure only on strength into earnings; use 1-2 week post-print vol to buy downside convexity rather than outright stock shorting, since the name can stay bid on headline beats.
• Structure a PLTR bearish call spread or put spread for 45-90 days out, targeting a move back toward the 200-day as the base case; cap premium to limit theta bleed if the stock remains momentum-driven.
• Pair trade: long higher-quality profitable software with lower valuation sensitivity against short PLTR for a relative-value hedge, expressing the view that AI spending can persist without rewarding the most expensive multiple in the basket.
• If PLTR gaps higher on a clean beat/raise, fade the move only after the first 24-48 hours and only if the stock holds above prior resistance; upside is likely to be reflexive but less durable than the fundamental narrative suggests.
• Risk control: cover a meaningful portion of any outright short if the next guide implies another step-up in 2027 growth assumptions, because the short thesis breaks if the market starts extending the terminal growth window rather than compressing the multiple.