Why AST SpaceMobile Could Buy Iridium, Viasat Spectrum To Counter Amazon's Globalstar Deal

AST SpaceMobile could respond to Amazon's proposed $11.57 billion acquisition of Globalstar by pursuing spectrum assets from Viasat or Iridium, according to an Oppenheimer analyst. The note is speculative rather than event-driven, but it highlights competitive pressure in satellite communications as ASTS stock fell again following yesterday's sell-off.

Analysis

The market is treating this as a zero-sum spectrum arms race, but the second-order effect is that any credible move by ASTS toward a spectrum partner could force a re-rating of its capital intensity and execution path, not just its competitive position. If ASTS can secure adjacent spectrum via a structured deal, the real value is optionality: it reduces dependency on a single strategic bottleneck and may compress the perceived time-to-commercialization gap versus larger incumbents.

GSAT is the cleanest near-term loser because the Amazon bid effectively caps upside while preserving deal risk; the stock becomes a spread/security-selection trade rather than a standalone operating story. VSAT and IRDM, by contrast, gain hidden leverage because they now sit inside a competitive auction for scarce spectrum rights, which can lift their strategic value even if operating fundamentals remain unchanged. The key second-order effect is that spectrum scarcity may shift valuation from EBITDA multiples to replacement-value logic, where asset scarcity matters more than current earnings.

The setup is tactically fragile over days but potentially constructive over months for ASTS if it can announce a credible counter-move; absent that, the stock likely remains hostage to headline risk and financing skepticism. The main tail risk is that competitors move first, locking up assets and leaving ASTS with a narrower strategic path, which would pressure the equity for several quarters. Conversely, if ASTS secures spectrum on terms that are dilutive but viable, the stock could rip on reduced existential risk even if near-term cash burn worsens.

The contrarian point is that the market may be over-penalizing ASTS for a move that could actually validate the scarcity of its own asset base and make it more attractive to strategic partners or acquirers. In this context, the more asymmetric trade may not be chasing the headline winner, but buying the most mispriced optionality where a small strategic announcement changes the probability-weighted terminal value. That favors event-driven positioning rather than outright directional exposure.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Short GSAT vs long AMZN only as a spread trade for the next 1-3 weeks; expect limited upside in GSAT if the deal structure looks executable, but cover quickly if regulatory friction widens the spread.
• Initiate a tactical long ASTS call spread 1-2 months out, funded by a smaller short position in ASTS common; the payoff is best if management can announce spectrum progress and the stock re-rates on reduced existential risk.
• Buy VSAT or IRDM on a 2-4 week horizon only on confirmation of strategic interest, not anticipation; the trade is a volatility capture on asset scarcity, with downside if the market decides the assets are non-core and stale.
• Avoid being outright short ASTS into headlines; use options instead, because the stock has high gap risk and could squeeze sharply on any credible spectrum partnership announcement.
• If looking for a relative-value expression, pair long ASTS vs short GSAT over the next month; the asymmetry is that ASTS has a path to incremental strategic value creation, while GSAT appears more monetized and therefore more capped.