Samsung taking market share from Apple in U.S. as foldable phones gain momentum

Samsung is significantly eroding Apple's U.S. smartphone market share, with its Q2 share rising to 31% from 23% as Apple's declined to 49% from 56%, contributing to Apple's stock underperformance and Samsung's 35% gain in 2025. This shift is primarily driven by Samsung's successful introduction of innovative foldable devices and a broader product portfolio targeting diverse price points, alongside the impact of tariffs. Samsung's aggressive push into new form factors is compelling Apple to accelerate its own development of slimmer and foldable iPhones, expected by 2026, signaling an intensifying battle for market leadership and future revenue streams.

Analysis

Samsung is mounting a significant challenge to Apple's dominance in the U.S. smartphone market, evidenced by a substantial Q2 market share shift where Samsung's share grew from 23% to 31% while Apple's declined from 56% to 49%, according to Canalys data. This competitive pressure is reflected in their respective stock performances, with Apple's shares declining 7.5% this year while Samsung's have appreciated approximately 35%. The shift is primarily attributed to Samsung's successful innovation in new form factors, particularly its Z-series foldable phones, which are gaining significant traction with 25% higher preorders and social media sentiment that is 83% positive or neutral. Samsung's strategy of offering a broad product portfolio spanning a wide price range of $650 to $2,400 also contrasts sharply with Apple's narrower, premium-focused lineup ($829 to $1,599), allowing Samsung to capture a wider consumer base. In response, Apple is expected to introduce a slimmer iPhone and a foldable device by 2026, which analysts from JPMorgan believe could be priced starting at $1,999, signaling Apple's intent to compete in the ultra-premium category and recapture innovative leadership.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors in Apple should closely monitor the company's product roadmap and execution on new form factors, as the anticipated slimmer iPhone and 2026 foldable model are critical catalysts to counter market share erosion from Samsung.
• Samsung's market share gains, strong stock performance, and successful innovation in the foldable segment present a compelling competitive narrative, potentially offering continued upside and a positive signal for key partners like Google (Alphabet) whose AI is a core feature of the devices.
• Recognize that the market is shifting towards new form factors and advanced AI integration, introducing execution risk for Apple, whose traditional strategy of waiting for technology to mature faces a significant test against Samsung's first-mover advantage in foldables.
• Evaluate the potential for average selling price (ASP) and margin expansion for both companies, as the move into ultra-premium foldable devices priced near $2,000 represents a key avenue for revenue growth beyond traditional unit sales.