No Help Yet For Thai Stock Market

The Thai stock market has experienced a four-session losing streak, shedding over 2.8% and closing Thursday down 0.50% at 1,291.58, with a continued weak outlook for Friday. This decline occurred amidst a mixed global market sentiment, as European and U.S. equities were mostly lower despite stronger-than-expected Q2 U.S. GDP growth and a slowdown in the PCE price index, though durable goods orders saw a significant drop. Investors are also anticipating Thailand's June import, export, and trade balance figures.

Analysis

The Thai stock market (SET) has demonstrated significant weakness, declining over 2.8% across four consecutive sessions to close Thursday at 1,291.58. This sustained downtrend, marked by a 0.50% loss on Thursday with 340 decliners, suggests a strong bearish momentum and anticipates further challenges for Friday's session. The overall market sentiment is assessed as "moderately negative" with a "bearish" tone.

This local market performance contrasts with mixed global signals; while European and US markets were mostly lower, US Q2 GDP growth accelerated "sharper than expected," and the personal consumption expenditures price index slowed to 2.6%. However, a "plummet" in June durable goods orders introduces a cautionary note regarding US economic momentum. Oil prices, specifically West Texas Intermediate Crude, rose $0.69 to $78.28, extending gains on the back of the strong US GDP data.

Sectoral weakness was broad-based on Thursday, impacting food, finance, consumer, property, resource, and technology sectors. Notable individual stock declines included Energy Absolute (-6.61%), Banpu (-2.57%), and Thai Oil (-2.39%), indicating specific company-level pressures. Upcoming June figures for Thailand's imports, exports, and trade balance will provide crucial domestic economic context, following May's positive 7.2% export growth and $660 million trade surplus.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor technical support levels for the SET index given the four-session losing streak and negative sentiment.
• Evaluate the potential for a rebound in specific sectors that have seen significant declines but possess strong fundamentals.
• Pay close attention to Thailand's upcoming June trade data for insights into export-driven economic performance and its impact on local equities.