Year-end report 2025

Investor AB reported an adjusted NAV of SEK 1,087.1bn (SEK 355/share) at 31 Dec 2025, with adjusted NAV growth of 14% and total shareholder return of 15% for 2025 (Q4 TSR 13% vs SIXRX 6%). Listed Companies returned 22% for the year; Patricia Industries delivered a total return of 1% in Q4 but -9% for 2025, with reported sales for major subsidiaries down 5% (organic +5% in constant currency) and reported EBITA -9% (adjusted EBITA -6%) hit by negative FX and restructuring costs. Mölnlycke posted 3% organic sales growth (5% in Wound Care) and margin improvement partly offset by currency and tariff headwinds; Investments in EQT rose 15% for 2025 and net cash flow was SEK -2,351m including a SEK 4,492m Fortnox investment. Leverage rose to 2.1% (from 1.2%), gross cash was SEK 27,119m, average debt maturity 9.2 years, and the board proposes a SEK 5.60/share dividend (SEK 4.00 May 2026, SEK 1.60 Nov 2026); management warns currency, tariff and geopolitical risks to persist into 2026.

Analysis

Market structure: Investor AB’s quarter highlights winners (Listed Companies and EQT exposure) and losers (Patricia Industries’ private industrials hit by currency and tariffs). NAV SEK 1,087.1bn and gross cash SEK 27.1bn with leverage 2.1% give the parent balance-sheet optionality for buybacks/M&A; persistent FX headwinds and higher tariffs compress margins for export-exposed portfolio companies and push input-cost risk into industrial commodity prices.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include a >5% SEK depreciation vs major trading partners (would depress reported NAV and amplify FX losses), tariff escalation that raises variable costs across Patricia subsidiaries, and a regulatory shock to private equity (EQT) that could impair realizations. Immediate effects: dividend support to shares over days; short-term (3–6 months): currency & tariff-driven earnings revisions; long-term (12–24 months): Patricia restructuring and multiple re-rating determine the bulk of NAV recovery.

Trade implications: Favor exposure to assets benefiting from PE re-ratings and parent optionality while hedging currency risk—EQT and Investor AB are primary plays; defensively downshift cyclical exporter exposure. Use covered-call income and targeted SEK forwards/calls to monetize near-term stability while keeping optionality for a 6–12 month re-rating if currency/tariffs stabilize.

Contrarian angle: The market likely underestimates the value of low leverage (2.1%) and EUR/SEK/ USD hedging flexibility — Investor can deploy SEK ~27bn cash to generate >3% NAV upside via disciplined buybacks or small bolt-on M&A within 12 months. Conversely, over-hedging SEK recovery risk could miss upside from organic growth in Patricia (organic +5% ex-FX) if currencies normalize.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% long position in Investor AB B-shares (INVE-B) with a 6–12 month horizon; target 12–20% upside vs current share price if NAV discount narrows. Place a stop-loss at -10% and reassess if adjusted NAV drops >8% QoQ.
• Initiate a 2–3% long position in EQT (EQT) expecting continued PE value realization; target 15–25% total return in 9–12 months. Reduce position if net cash flow from EQT turns more negative than SEK -5bn in a single quarter or if realization guidance is pulled.
• Hedge currency exposure: hedge 50% of non‑SEK equity exposure for 3–6 months if SEK depreciates >3% vs USD/EUR; implement via SEK call/USD put options 3-month 3–5% OTM or forwards to cap NAV translation risk while keeping upside participation.
• Enhance income on INVE-B via covered-call writes: sell 3-month calls ~5% OTM on up to 30% of the INVE-B position to collect premium; roll monthly and avoid strikes < current dividend-adjusted fair value to preserve upside for rerating.