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Shell says it expects a 'much stronger' trading profit and disclosed that first-quarter gas production will decline (no magnitude provided). The guidance upgrade on trading profit is positive for near-term earnings and share performance, though the fall in gas output is a headwind for volumes. Monitor any follow-up details on profit drivers and the size/duration of the production decline.

Analysis

Shell says it expects a 'much stronger' trading profit and disclosed that first-quarter gas production will decline (no magnitude provided). The guidance upgrade on trading profit is positive for near-term earnings and share performance, though the fall in gas output is a headwind for volumes. Monitor any follow-up details on profit drivers and the size/duration of the production decline.