Apple Stock Hits the “Magical Formula,” Says Daniel Ives – Raising Price Target to New Street-High

Apple stock has erased year-to-date losses, buoyed by robust early demand for the iPhone 17, with units tracking 10-15% ahead of the iPhone 16 and production potentially rising 20% for base and Pro models. Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives, who raised his price target to a Street-high of $310, attributes this to a significant pent-up upgrade cycle and anticipates a rebound in China demand by FY26. Ives also projects Apple will deepen its AI partnership with Google Gemini, estimating this AI monetization could add $75-$100 per share to Apple's valuation, as he believes no AI premium is currently factored into the stock, despite a broader analyst consensus suggesting shares may remain rangebound at current levels.

Analysis

Apple's stock (AAPL) has reversed its year-to-date underperformance, driven by early signs of a robust iPhone 17 upgrade cycle. According to Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives, initial unit demand is tracking 10-15% ahead of the iPhone 16, with Asian supply chain checks suggesting a potential 20% increase in production for base and Pro models. This demand is attributed to a significant pent-up consumer base, with an estimated 315 million iPhones not having been upgraded in over four years. A critical component of this outlook is the anticipated reversal of negative growth trends in China by FY26, although the region presents formidable headwinds from local competitors and a temporary regulatory delay for the iPhone Air's eSIM. Beyond hardware, the analysis points to a significant, un-priced catalyst in Apple's AI strategy. The expectation is for Apple to leverage its 2.4 billion-device installed base by deepening its partnership with Google Gemini, a move projected to add $75 to $100 per share in value from AI monetization. While Ives has issued a Street-high price target of $310, it's notable that the broader analyst consensus average target of $250.17 suggests shares may remain rangebound, indicating a divergence between this bullish thesis and the wider market view.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors may view the strong early demand signals for the iPhone 17 and the large pent-up upgrade cycle as a primary catalyst supporting a bullish stance for fiscal year 2026.
• Monitor developments in Apple's AI strategy, as a formal, deepened partnership with Google Gemini could unlock significant shareholder value, which one prominent analyst believes is not currently priced into the stock.
• It is prudent to weigh the bullish $310 price target against the more conservative consensus average of $250.17 and acknowledge the execution risks in China, including intense competition and regulatory hurdles, which could temper near-term upside.