Where Will Nebius Stock Be in 1 Year?

Nebius, the rebranded AI infrastructure provider formerly known as Yandex, has seen its shares rally significantly since October 2024, driven by its specialized remote AI processing services and explosive market demand. The company reported robust revenue growth, with 2024 revenue up 462% to $117.5 million and 9M 2025 revenue up 437% to $302.1 million, despite ongoing EBITDA losses. Major multi-year AI infrastructure deals totaling over $20 billion with Microsoft and Meta underpin an ambitious target of $7-9 billion annualized revenue run rate by late 2026 and a significant capacity expansion, leading analysts to view current conservative forecasts as potentially understated, suggesting substantial upside for the $25.7 billion market cap firm.

Analysis

Nebius (NBIS) has successfully pivoted to an AI infrastructure provider after divesting Russian assets, with shares surging from $14.29 in October 2024 to approximately $100. The company operates a full-stack AI infrastructure model, leveraging Nvidia GPUs and managed software, driving robust revenue growth.

Nebius reported 2024 revenue up 462% to $117.5 million, and 9M 2025 revenue soared 437% to $302.1 million; adjusted EBITDA, while negative, improved to -$79.9 million in 9M 2025, with capacity fully utilized. Future growth is underpinned by substantial long-term deals, including a $17.4 billion agreement with Microsoft and a $3 billion deal with Meta, alongside planned capacity expansion to 1 GW.

Nebius targets an ambitious annualized revenue run rate of $7 billion to $9 billion by late 2026. Analyst estimates for 2027 revenue ($4.34 billion) and positive EBITDA appear conservative given these catalysts, suggesting over 150% market cap increase to $65.1 billion within 12 months if expectations are met, from its current $25.7 billion market cap at 15x next year's sales.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should consider initiating a speculative position given Nebius's robust growth, significant hyperscale cloud deals, and potential to exceed conservative analyst estimates.
• Closely monitor the company's progress on its ambitious capacity expansion to 1 GW and its trajectory towards positive adjusted EBITDA in 2026.
• Evaluate the execution of its multi-billion dollar contracts with Microsoft and Meta, and its ability to secure further partnerships in the competitive AI infrastructure market.