Prediction: Rigetti Computing Stock Is Going to Plummet in 2026

Rigetti stock has already fallen 70% from its all-time high and still trades around $17, with a $5.6 billion market cap implying more than 50x projected 2028 sales. The company remains unprofitable, has nearly tripled its share count since its SPAC merger, and faces intense competition from IonQ and IBM, while insiders sold 16 times as many shares as they bought over the past 12 months. The article argues that even with revenue expected to rise from $7.1 million in 2025 to $110.8 million in 2028, the valuation remains stretched and the stock could decline further.

Analysis

The setup is less about quantum adoption and more about market structure: a pre-profitability story with a huge implied terminal value, funded by repeated equity issuance, is vulnerable whenever risk appetite cools. That makes the stock’s downside asymmetric over the next 3-12 months because any revenue miss, delay in a flagship system rollout, or slower-than-expected customer conversion can force the market to re-rate both growth and dilution simultaneously. The key second-order effect is that the equity becomes a financing instrument first and an operating business second; that usually compresses valuation long before absolute fundamentals break.

Among public quantum names, the relative winner is the one with the cleanest path from narrative to monetization, not necessarily the most advanced hardware. IBM benefits because it turns quantum into an embedded option on a much larger enterprise software and services base, so it can absorb slower commercialization without existential multiple risk. IonQ is the more direct beneficiary of a “quality growth” rotation within the group because investors can hide in a clearer roadmap and a lower valuation-on-forward-sales profile, while more speculative names become the funding source for the sector’s next leg up. QUBT may get a sympathy bid, but the market is likely to discriminate harder there because the bar for alternative architectures rises when risk-free rates and liquidity tighten.

The contrarian case is that the stock may already be pricing in a lot of execution failure, but not enough financing stress. If the company lands even one meaningful commercial proof point, the squeeze could be violent because positioning in high-beta quantum names is typically crowded and thin. Still, the more actionable view is that the next catalyst window is earnings/guidance plus any capital raise; those are the points where narrative can flip into math.

The cleanest expression is a relative-value short against the weakest balance-sheet/speculation mix rather than an outright sector short. In a risk-off tape, the market usually punishes duration and dilution faster than it rewards optionality, so the trade should favor names with existing revenue engines and avoid those needing multiple future rounds of equity to reach scale.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Short RGTI on strength into the next earnings window; use a 1-3 month horizon and keep size modest because the stock can gap violently on headline-driven contract news. Risk/reward favors downside if the company misses even slightly and the market re-prices future dilution.
• Pair trade: long IBM / short RGTI for 3-6 months. This isolates quantum skepticism while staying long a diversified monetization path; target is mean reversion in relative valuation as investors rotate away from pure-story names.
• Pair trade: long IONQ / short RGTI over 1-2 quarters. Prefer the name with the clearer commercialization narrative and less fragile funding profile; this works best if rates stay high and speculative multiples compress.
• Buy RGTI put spreads 1-2 expiries out rather than outright puts if implied vol is elevated. The structure captures downside from a guidance miss while limiting premium bleed in a stock prone to event-driven spikes.
• Do not chase QUBT as a sector beta proxy until the market proves it can reward alternative-architecture claims. If you want quantum exposure, prefer the higher-quality names and treat the rest as tactical trades, not core longs.