Invitation to the presentation of Loomis’ Full-year report on February 4, 2026

Loomis AB will publish its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 report on February 4, 2026 at 07:30 CET and present the results via webcast and analyst/press call at 10:00 CET; presenters are President & CEO Aritz Larrea, CFO Johan Wilsby and Head of Sustainability & IR Jenny Boström. The company, listed on Nasdaq Stockholm's Large‑Cap list, operates around 400 branches in more than 20 countries, employs about 25,000 people and reported revenue in 2024 of more than SEK 30 billion; a recorded webcast and Q&A will be made available for investors and analysts.

Analysis

Market structure: Loomis (STO:LOOM‑B) operates in a defensive niche—cash logistics—which benefits from sticky contracts with banks/retailers; winners if results show resilient volumes are Loomis and Prosegur (BME:PRG) in EMEA/LATAM, losers are lower‑cost digital‑only cash logistics entrants and unsecured regional players. A clean FY2025 beat would re‑rate valuation modestly (5–15% relative) as pricing power on armored transport and recycling lifts EBITDA margins; a miss signals accelerating secular cash substitution and forces price competition.

Risk assessment: Near term (days) the webcast on Feb 4 is a volatility catalyst; short term (weeks) risks include guidance cuts and contract losses; long term (3–36 months) tail risks are faster cash decline or a large operational/security incident. Hidden dependencies include central bank cash recirculation policies, retail POS trends and SEK FX translation (we estimate FX can swing reported top line ±3–6% year‑on‑year). Catalysts: Feb 4 guidance, announced buybacks/dividends, or major contract wins/losses.

Trade implications: Event trade: buy volatility around Feb 4 if IV < realized vol of peers, otherwise use directional equity—establish 2–3% long LOOM‑B on a conservative beat (organic rev growth >+1.5% and EBIT margin >6%); short 1–2% if revenue fall >‑3% or guidance trimmed. Pair trade: long LOOM‑B vs short NYSE:BCO (Brink’s) equal notional for 1–3 months if Loomis shows stronger Europe margin resilience; options: buy Feb/March straddle if expecting >8% move post‑results.

Contrarian angles: Consensus underweights buyback/dividend risk—if FCF conversion >65% and leverage drops <2.0x, management historically returns cash; that would be underpriced. Reaction could be overdone on a mild miss—buy dips toward fundamental thresholds above (add at 5–8% drawdown). Historical parallel: sector re‑ratings occurred when firms demonstrated pricing power after 12–18 months of contract repricing, not instant secular decline.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% long position in Loomis AB (STO:LOOM‑B) within 1–3 trading days after the Feb 4 webcast if FY2025 shows organic revenue growth ≥+1.5% y/y and adjusted EBIT margin ≥6%; target 12–18% upside in 6–12 months, stop‑loss at a 6% adverse price move or if guidance is cut.
• If Loomis reports revenue decline >‑3% y/y or guidance is trimmed, initiate a 1–2% tactical short or buy put spread (2×10% OTM) expiring March 2026 to limit capital at risk; reassess on confirmed contract losses or FCF miss.
• Execute a relative value pair: long LOOM‑B vs short Brink’s (NYSE:BCO) equal notional for 1–3 months if Loomis provides stronger margin/guidance; allocate 1–2% net exposure and rebalance on any 5% divergence in performance.
• Buy a Feb/March 2026 straddle on LOOM‑B if implied vol is below 20% and market bid/ask allows — target realized move >8% to profit; alternatively sell premium (iron condor) if IV >30% and you expect muted reaction.
• Require management action trigger: add to core position up to 5% if Loomis announces share buyback or dividend increase and net debt/EBITDA <2.0x within 6 months; exit incrementally if FCF conversion falls below 50% or major contract loss disclosed.