Gold price prediction: Gold rate to fall big in second half of 2026, predict experts

Gold prices recently hit a record high of $4,225.69 per ounce, fueled by persistent geopolitical and economic uncertainties, expectations of U.S. rate cuts, and a weaker dollar, contributing to a 61% year-to-date surge. ANZ forecasts gold to further climb to $4,400 by year-end and peak near $4,600 by June 2026, citing ongoing concerns over Fed independence, political instability, and global tensions. However, the bank anticipates a potential decline in the second half of 2026 as the Federal Reserve concludes its easing cycle, with a hawkish Fed or stronger U.S. economic growth posing downside risks.

Analysis

Gold has recently achieved a new record high, with spot gold reaching $4,224.79 per ounce after touching $4,225.69, and U.S. gold futures for December delivery gaining to $4,239.70. This represents a significant 61% year-to-date surge, primarily fueled by persistent geopolitical and economic uncertainties, expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, and a U.S. dollar index trading near a one-week low. The weaker dollar makes the metal more attractive to foreign buyers, enhancing its safe-haven appeal.

ANZ forecasts continued upward momentum, projecting gold to reach $4,400 per ounce by year-end 2025 and peak near $4,600 by June 2026. This bullish outlook is underpinned by ongoing concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's independence, political uncertainty, trade tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and ballooning global debts, which are expected to sustain strategic investment interest. Silver is also anticipated to benefit, with ANZ projecting it to reach $57.50 per ounce by mid-2026.

However, ANZ cautions that a potential decline in gold prices is expected in the second half of 2026 as the U.S. Federal Reserve concludes its easing cycle. Key downside risks include a more hawkish-than-expected Fed stance or stronger U.S. economic growth, which could diminish gold's safe-haven allure. The overall market sentiment for gold is currently mixed, reflecting this balance between near-term tailwinds and future policy-driven headwinds.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider maintaining exposure to gold and silver, given ANZ's bullish near-term forecasts driven by geopolitical and monetary policy factors.
• Monitor Federal Reserve communications closely for any shifts towards a more hawkish stance or signs of stronger-than-expected U.S. economic growth, which could trigger a price reversal in late 2026.
• Evaluate current gold positions for potential profit-taking opportunities around the projected June 2026 peak of $4,600, aligning with ANZ's expectation of a subsequent decline.