JMP Securities reiterates Market Outperform rating on Xometry stock

JMP Securities reiterated a Market Outperform rating on Xometry (XMTR) with a Street-high $45 price target, citing the company's significant role in transforming the $2 trillion custom manufacturing market and its potential as a 'multi-year compounder.' This endorsement follows Xometry's strong first-quarter results, which saw core marketplace revenue increase 27% year-over-year and adjusted EPS surpass expectations, alongside a raised FY25 marketplace growth outlook to at least 22% and a $250 million convertible note offering to fund strategic initiatives.

Analysis

JMP Securities' reiteration of a 'Market Outperform' rating on Xometry (XMTR) with a $45 price target underscores a strong institutional conviction in the company's growth trajectory. This bullish stance is supported by robust fundamental performance, including a 174% stock return over the past year. In its recent first-quarter results, Xometry exceeded expectations with revenue growing 23% year-over-year to $150.97 million and adjusted EPS reaching $0.02 against a breakeven forecast. The primary growth driver was the core marketplace segment, which saw revenue accelerate by 27% YoY, fueled by U.S. enterprise demand. Management has signaled sustained momentum by raising its full-year 2025 marketplace growth outlook to at least 22% from a prior 20%. The company's strategic initiatives, such as a $250 million convertible note offering to refinance debt and repurchase shares, and the expansion of its Teamspace solution into Europe, are designed to fortify its market position and support long-term expansion within the $2 trillion manufacturing industry. JMP's valuation of approximately 3 times estimated 2026 revenue highlights a long-term view of Xometry as a 'multi-year compounder' whose total addressable market is currently underappreciated.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the strong earnings beat, raised guidance, and a significant analyst price target of $45, investors with a growth-oriented mandate should view XMTR as a potential core holding in the industrial technology space.
• Monitor the company’s core marketplace revenue growth, which stood at 27% YoY, as this is the key metric validating the 'multi-year compounder' thesis and justifying its premium valuation.
• While the outlook is positive, investors should consider that the stock has already gained 174% over the past year and the new convertible note offering could introduce future share dilution, warranting a careful approach to position sizing.