These stocks reporting next week can beat expectations and rally, Bespoke says

CNBC Pro screened upcoming earnings reports for stocks that beat EPS expectations at least 75% of the time and typically rise at least 1.5% after results. Five9 (98% beat rate, ~3% average post-earnings move), Meta Platforms (89%, ~2.1%), and Wingstop (79%, 3.7%) all made the list, with analysts broadly positive on each and implying upside of more than 77%, 26%, and 54%, respectively. The piece is bullish on near-term earnings setups, though Five9 remains under pressure amid AI-related software concerns and recent share declines.

Analysis

The setup is less about the headline beat probabilities and more about dispersion in post-earnings positioning. All three names have been punished enough that a modest guide-post clean-up can force mechanical de-risking by short-term shorts and underweight funds, especially where options markets likely still price elevated downside because the narratives are unresolved. That creates asymmetry: the expected move is only a few percent, but the reflexive cover could be larger if management commentary removes a single overhang.

Five9 is the cleanest contrarian expression because the selloff has already discounted a multi-year AI disruption story, so the bar is now more about proving the business is not in secular decay than delivering a beat. If the company can show even stabilization in bookings or churn, the move could be outsized because the stock is thinly owned and sentiment is crowded negative; if not, the equity remains vulnerable to another leg down as investors reprice terminal growth lower. Meta is a different case: earnings are likely to matter less than any signal on ad demand elasticity, capex discipline, and whether AI monetization is starting to offset rising infrastructure spend. Wingstop is the most timing-sensitive, since the stock can rerate quickly on same-store-sales inflection, but it is also the one where consumer-demand miss risk can overwhelm a beat.

The key second-order effect is that a positive print in any of these names could lift the whole peer basket by challenging the prevailing bearish narrative. For software, Five9 strength would be read through to other customer-service and workflow names with AI-exposure skepticism; for restaurants, Wingstop could validate premium QSR pricing power even if the broader consumer remains mixed. Conversely, a miss from Meta would pressure the AI spend complex because investors would likely interpret it as a signal that monetization is lagging infrastructure outlays, not just a company-specific issue.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Go long FIVN into the print with a 1-2 week horizon via common or at-the-money calls; this is the highest convexity setup because sentiment is already deeply negative and even a neutral guide could force short covering. Risk/reward is attractive into a single-event catalyst, but size modestly because a reaffirmation of AI disruption could reopen the downtrend.
• Buy META on a post-earnings dip if guidance is intact and ad commentary remains stable; use a 1-3 month horizon because the stock is more likely to mean-revert on capex/monetization clarity than on the report itself. Prefer a call spread over outright shares to limit downside if management signals heavier AI spending without near-term revenue payback.
• For WING, wait for the first 24 hours after earnings and only buy if same-store-sales commentary implies acceleration; this is the highest beta consumer-demand trade and can gap both ways. Best expression is a tight call spread or small equity position with a 3-6 week horizon, because the market will quickly discount any deceleration in traffic.
• Pair trade: long FIVN / short a basket of profitable software names most exposed to AI replacement fears if the report confirms stabilization; the goal is to capture idiosyncratic relief while hedging market beta. Hold only through the earnings window and trim quickly if there is no evidence of demand inflection.
• Avoid shorting META into earnings unless implied vol is extreme and positioning is clearly crowded long; the asymmetry is unfavorable because upside can come from non-obvious commentary on AI monetization and buyback support. If you need a hedge, use put spreads rather than naked shorts.